Temperatures will be well above average through Thursday. For comparison the typical average high temperature in the Texas Panhandle for mid-November is in the low 60s. The forecast has them getting up into the upper 70s to mid 80s over the next three days. Some locations across Texas will likely approach their previous record highs. South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley may approach 90 degrees as well each afternoon through Thursday. Precipitation is not expected on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday in the State of Texas.

Major changes arrive in the form of a strong cold front and the passage of a potent low pressure to our north starting Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will feature critical fire weather concerns across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Strong winds gusting up to 40-50 MPH with near record high temperatures will create big-time fire danger. Red Flag Warnings are possible both days and local emergency responders should be prepared for active/rapid fire behavior. The cold front will start to push through the Texas Panhandle and West Texas Thursday evening. Winds will become northerly while remaining potent. Temperatures will drop quickly, but any fires uncontained on the east/south flanks could flare up quickly.

The frontal passage will be a dry one for all of Texas west of Interstate 35. As the front approaches Interstate 35 early Friday it’ll interact with modest amounts of moisture. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along the front on Friday as it moves east and south. A few storms may be severe, but limited moisture levels should keep the severe weather risk low. That may change if 1) the front slows down a couple hours and has higher instability amounts to work with or 2) moisture levels are higher than anticipated. Regardless widespread/beneficial rains are unlikely with this frontal passage in Texas. Some folks may get a brief downpour but that’s about it.

As the front pushes south through Texas on Friday winds will become strong out of the north/northwest. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and a very dry airmass will move into Texas. The dry airmass will certainly make it much nicer this weekend, but temperatures will also be significantly cooler. Compared to the 80s over the next few days most locations will see high temperatures 20 to 25 degrees cooler this weekend. Overnight low temperatures will also be much cooler and easily the lowest so far this season. D/FW has yet to make it below 50 degrees this fall – well past the previous record set back in 2015. That’ll change this weekend as low temperatures fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s in the urban D/FW. Lows across much of Texas by Sunday morning and Monday morning will be in the 20s, 30s, to 40s – even into Deep South Texas.