Hurricane Delta has taken a beating over the last twenty-four hours. In fact, it was barely holding on to hurricane status earlier when it entered the Gulf of Mexico after moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. However, satellite imagery and aircraft data indicate the hurricane is starting to reorganize itself. The minimum central pressure is starting to fall, and projected conditions will strongly favor intensification over the next twenty-four hours. The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast has Delta intensifying back up to major hurricane status by tomorrow as it moves to the north/northwest.

There have not been any substantial changes in the track forecast with Delta compared to my post this morning. The hurricane should start turning north late Thursday and eventually north/northeast early Friday. We continue to anticipate Delta making landfall somewhere on the western or central Louisiana coast Friday afternoon if there has been any change. The storm’s timing has moved up a couple of hours.

Damaging Wind Threat

Similar to Laura, Texas would be on the western, weaker side of the hurricane. Storm surge and wind impacts would be less than those expected closer to the hurricane’s core and the east of the landfall location. Delta’s wind field will expand over the next two days. Impacts will extend farther out from the center of the hurricane. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur along the Upper Texas Coast with hurricane-force winds possible in the Golden Triangle.

Storm Surge & Coastal Flooding

The storm surge forecast with Delta isn’t as severe as Beta for Texas on the current track forecast. Some coastal flooding is likely, but the worst will be near and east of the landfall location in Louisiana.

Any shift west in future track forecasts, while not likely, would bring more significant impacts farther west. To be clear, we are not expecting a massive jump west in the forecast. Yet, any shift west would bring higher winds into the Golden Triangle (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange).

Heavy Rain Threat

Localized flash flooding from heavy rain may occur in the Golden Triangle and Far East Texas. Delta’s fast movement will prevent a higher-end flooding event, and the forecast track keeps the heaviest rains east of Texas.

The next full forecast advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be released around 10 PM. We’ll have another blog post out shortly after with any changes. I expect hurricane/tropical storm/storm surge warnings to be issued late tonight or early Thursday morning.