Discussion – 


Discussion – 


Texas Severe Weather 7AM Briefing for June 15, 2023

Remember this time last year? We were well into a month of triple-digit heat and drought conditions across most of Texas. This time, the summer heatwave coincides with an April-like severe weather pattern. As this last week has shown, nothing good can possibly come of that. Unfortunately, our upper-level heat dome is spending its sweet time expanding north, so the threat of severe storms later today and Saturday has increased substantially. A severe weather outbreak is possible beginning after 3 PM today across eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, Western Oklahoma, into portions of Northwest Texas, Texoma, and western North Texas. This is the song that doesn’t end, it goes on and on, my friend…

There remains disagreement amongst our all-mighty weather models (sarcasm greatly implied) on how far south storms will fire this afternoon. Like the last several days, the most intense storms will be superceulluar with a threat of giant hail larger than softball size (4″+). However, we also add the potential for hurricane-force straight-line winds and the threat of a few tornadoes today and tonight. Isolated to scattered severe storms will likely develop after 3 PM in eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Those storms will rapidly intensify to become superceulluar with a threat of destructive to giant hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. That activity will quickly move east into Western Oklahoma around dinner time. However, we may also have multiple supercells firing in western North Texas this afternoon. In that case, they’ll move east to directly impact the I-35 corridor from Oklahoma City south through the D/FW Metroplex, perhaps south toward Waco, Temple, and Belton. That forecast aspect remains somewhat uncertain and will need to be closely monitored. Those storms would then move into Northeast and East Texas with a severe weather threat this evening.

Meanwhile, back north in Oklahoma, storms that fire up this afternoon will likely conge into a cluster or line of intense, severe storms. That cluster can potentially evolve into a #derecho that would race southeast across Central, Southern, and Southeastern Oklahoma into Texoma and Northeast Texas late tonight. There is a significant risk of hurricane-force straight-line winds over 80 MPH, with the most intense storms with that cluster tonight. Some wind gusts could exceed 100 to 110 MPH in Oklahoma. Wind-driven destructive hail and the threat of spin-up tornadoes would also exist. These storms may race southeast into Northeast Texas late this evening through early Friday morning, but if we have storms fire up this afternoon in North Texas, this may be disrupted a bit – and some changes to the forecast would occur. Regardless, severe weather is likely at some point tonight for the Ark-La-Tex, Texoma, parts of North Texas, and Oklahoma.


Friday could feature isolated severe storms in the northern Texas Panhandle and perhaps in the Ark-La-Tex. Still, it looks like a ‘down day’ in the storm department. Considering how well that forecast has worked for some previous days this week, I’m sure mother nature will throw a wrench in that plan, and we’ll have to change that element of the forecast later.

Saturday could potentially feature another severe weather threat across the Texas Panhandle, Big Country, Northwest Texas, into portions of Texoma, North Texas, and Oklahoma. Another round of late afternoon, nasty-size hail-producing supercells with a complex of storms by Saturday evening look to be in the cards. We’ll deal with that once we get past today, but Saturday is also busy in the storm-mischief department.

Otherwise, record-breaking heat is already starting to build in Texas. It will only get worse this weekend and for all of next week. High temperatures will range from 97 to 112 degrees, with heat index values from 103 to 120 degrees in Texas. This dangerous heatwave will continue for the next ten days at least.

00:00 – Intro
01:09 – Record-breaking heatwave into next week
02:43 – Today’s Severe Weather Risk & Threats
06:26 – Today’s Tornado Risk
07:29 – Storm timing from HRRR model
09:14 – Storm timing from North American model
10:07 – Storm timing from RRFS model
11:41 – Baldy-in-chiefisms
13:14 – Saturday’s severe weather risk
14:27 – TSC’s coverage & chase plans
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