A complex, severe weather forecast will give us a headache over the next eighteen to twenty-four hours. At least scattered severe storms are possible late this afternoon through pre-dawn Monday across the Hill Country, North Texas, Texoma, into the Ark-La-Tex and Northeast Texas. The most intense storms *could* have hail larger than the size of baseballs, along with damaging straight-line wind gusts over 70 MPH. Today’s tornado threat is very low but not completely zero. Isolated flash flooding may also become an issue with the potential for multiple rounds of storms.

This morning, we’re watching a cluster of storms across eastern Oklahoma. Those storms should progress south into the Ark-La-Tex and Northeast Texas. The question is how far south will those storms make it this morning into early this afternoon. Some high-resolution weather model data suggests storms may enter Southeast Texas this afternoon. If that occurs, we may see an outflow boundary spark off new storms in the Brazos Valley and Central Texas this afternoon – with a risk of strong winds and large hail.

Late this afternoon into tonight, a cold front across southern Oklahoma will spark off scattered numerous thunderstorms. Individual storms will tend to move east/southeast, while the ‘complex’ of storms themselves tend to progress to the south. Storms will move across the Red River into Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas this evening – making their way south into parts of the Big Country, Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, and East Texas Monday morning. Some storms are likely to be severe, and we may see multiple ’rounds’ of storms develop as the atmosphere remains unstable overnight with the cool front moving south. This forecast aspect will be refined this afternoon, especially after we get a better handle on what this morning’s storms leave in their wake.

The good news is we will see high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday fall into the 80s to low 90s across the northern half to the northern two-thirds of Texas. Today will feature record-high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s, with heat index values approaching 110 degrees in some locations.

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