*Updated Sunday 11:30pm CDT*

Hello everybody. Here is an update on the TWO tropical systems impacting the Gulf Coast including Texas this week.

Image 1 shows the two storms’ tracks side-by-side. Left: Marco. Right: Laura.

NHC has pulled the west-curving track of TS Marco a bit south and calls for the cyclone to track westward along the Louisiana coast tomorrow evening and throughout Tuesday. We are hopeful impacts are low due to sparsely populated areas along the US-90 corridor and wildlife refuges as the storm makes a quasi-landfall. The majority of model guidance depicts a weakening Marco with time (it has already been downgraded from a Cat 1 Hurricane to a Tropical Storm a couple of hours ago). Marco looks to reach SE TX and surrounding gulf waters overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. By then winds should be sub-TS level. The area will likely be exposed to some 30-40mph winds and flooding rains if this forecast verifies.

But here is where it gets sketchy.

Laura appears to only gain strength along its predicted path from Cuba to the US Gulf Coast. We are beginning to fear that Laura will be at least a Cat 2 Hurricane as it reaches land. How well she survives her journey across Cuba tonight into the morning will be important. The NHC track has shifted the path of Laura slightly east, but maintains its hurricane status upon landfall in SW Louisiana (very close to SE Texas). What we have seen tonight from a few high-res models is still a SE Texas landfall on Wednesday night. NHC May be onto something with the shift east, we still have some time to pinpoint this better. Two different simulated radar images have been attached above, and they put SE Texas in Laura’s path. Galveston Island should keep an eye out…Bolivar Peninsula, Winnie, Port Arthur-Beaumont, TX should DEFINITELY stay updated on the latest. Storm surge along the coast and damaging winds will be a major threat if this scenario unfolds. A major hurricane cannot be ruled out. Flooding is nearly certain around the Sabine River and eastern Coastal Plains with the combo of TS/TD Marco Tuesday night and (Hurricane) Laura Wednesday. We will continue to update you this week on the latest. We will have additional info on the amount of rainfall, storm strength, and more. It is going to be a very busy several days.

Note: Brief tornadoes and waterspouts also could be a threat from either/both cyclone(s) this week in E Texas and Louisiana. These are very hard to anticipate in advance.

A big thank you to new folks joining our Patreon today! We are very grateful for your support.