A multi-faceted, potentially high-impact weather event is in the cards today for the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, and Concho Valley. There is an increasing likelihood for new or exacerbated flooding, along with numerous severe thunderstorms that could produce very large hail, hurricane-force straight-line winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Welcome to an active June severe weather season in Western Texas. They used to be fairly common in the 90s and early 2000s, but it’s been a while.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will begin developing as soon as 11 AM CT in eastern New Mexico south into the Guadalupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos. Rapid intensification of the storms is expected, with discrete to semi-discrete storms likely becoming superceulluar. These initial superceulluar storms could produce very large to giant hail up to the size of softballs, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 miles per hour, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Very heavy rainfall will also create a flash flooding threat. Storms will move east into the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin this afternoon. We may see a fairly quick transition over to a squall line or thunderstorm cluster – or just many storms – in those regions this afternoon. Once storms become ‘clustered’, we’ll likely see the threat for flooding rainfall and very strong wind gusts increase. The threat for hurricane-force winds over 80 miles per hour will be with the most intense storms, or ‘bowing’ segments in a squall line. Spin-up tornadoes are also possible.

Further south across the Permian Basin, eastern Big Bend, Concho Valley, and the northern Edwards Plateau – we may see storms remain at least semi-discrete longer into the afternoon and early evening hours. These superceulluar storms could be intense with giant hail up to the size of softballs, localized wind gusts over 70 miles per hour, very heavy rain, and perhaps a few tornadoes. We’ll also need to monitor the higher terrain of northern Mexico as well for thunderstorm initiation. If a few storms do develop in northern Mexico, they may move into the Edwards Plateau late this afternoon, with severe weather also likely.
As storms continue to move east this evening into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and the Concho Valley, we’ll see the strongest storms continue producing damaging straight-line winds, large hail (though not as large as when storms are discrete or semi-discrete), heavy rainfall, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Unlike in May, these storms will not make it to Interstate 35 (North Texas, the Hill Country, Central Texas) before weakening significantly overnight. Storms may struggle to reach I-35 at all before dissipating. That being said, Mother Nature has been known to be a troll, so we’ll carefully monitor the storms tonight to ensure they’re following our allotted schedule. Even if storms reach North Texas and the Hill Country early Saturday morning, the severe weather threat would rapidly decrease.

The weather forecast for Saturday is uncertain and will depend significantly on what storms do to the atmosphere later today. At least some potential for thunderstorm redevelopment Saturday afternoon is evident, with scattered storms possible in multiple regions (see the video timestamps for an explanation on that and graphics). Stronger storms may produce localized damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin east through North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. The severe weather threat is low, but any storm will produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and localized strong wind gusts.
Temperatures over the weekend will remain about where they should be for early June. Warm and humid but still cooling off decently at night, and none of that triple-digit temperatures for days garbage we had to deal with in the summer of hell last year.

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VIDEO CHAPTERS FOR EASY NAVIGATING
00:00 – Intro
01:06 – Flooding Threat & Hydrometeorological Concerns
02:35 – Today’s Severe Weather Risk, Hazards, Discussion
07:28 – Today’s Storm Timing
09:24 – Saturday’s Storm Chances & Severe Weather Threat
12:02 – Sunday’s Expanded Rain Chances
13:37 – Final Thoughts & Baldyinchiefisms

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