The Atlantic Hurricane Season has taken off like a State Trooper on their way to the donut store. We have a major hurricane moving into the Caribbean, another developing system on its heels, and a tropical storm that made landfall in Mexico this morning. What does that all mean for our weather in Texas? I’m glad you asked!

Major Hurricane Baryl

Major Hurricane Beryl is located near the Windward Islands this morning. Our first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season is quickly moving westward and will enter the Caribbean Sea later today. Later this week, Beryl may directly threaten the Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps Belize. Wind shear will become less favorable by mid-week, likely resulting in a weakening trend for Beryl.

By Friday, Hurricane Beryl’s future path remains uncertain, with various predictions placing it inland over Central America or several hundred miles northeast near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. There’s even a possibility that it might venture into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. However, it’s important to note that these are just a few of the many possible scenarios. As of now, Beryl is expected to remain too far south to directly threaten Texas this weekend, but we’ll be closely monitoring its movements.

Tropical Storm Chris… and Debby?

Tropical Storm Chris managed to pull itself together shortly before landfall this morning several hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. It has already moved inland, bringing more rain to areas that really didn’t need any more after Alberto. If that wasn’t enough tropical mischief to fill your plate, a third tropical blob is several hundred miles east of Beryl. That system is likely to become our next named tropical storm in the coming days. If it develops, it shall be named Debby.

Texas Weather Forecast brings hope of a Pattern Change!

Our weather across Texas remains typical for the summer months – hot and mostly dry. However, changes are on the horizon as our heat dome relocates its happy self to the western United States. Late this week into the weekend, that pattern change will result in a weak northwesterly flow setting up over Texas. Combined with less sinking air, and a summer-time airmass, we’ll likely start to see increasing numbers of afternoon popup showers and storms this weekend and next week across the state. In addition to some hope for a few rain showers, a modest cool front will be able to push south into Texas. That weak cool front will move into the Panhandle on Tuesday, becoming a focal point for scattered thunderstorms.

We’ll also see rain chances through mid-week across the western third of Texas. Isolated to scattered afternoon rain, chances will spread east by late week, possibly continuing daily into next week. With the uptick in at least isolated storms, we’ll also see temperatures start to come down. Our current forecast does not show any impact from the tropics, but we’ll watch it closely as we approach the weekend.

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