A weather pattern change will bring some welcome relief from the triple-digit heat to Texas later this week into the second week of July. With it will also come an uptick in precipitation chances. What about a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend?

Baldy is on vacation for a few more days, so this video is coming out a bit earlier than usual. The upper-level high pressure responsible for our summer weather is about to relocate itself to the West Coast. In its wake, we’ll see a weak northwesterly flow aloft by week’s end and next week. That northwesterly flow will allow some thunderstorms from New Mexico and Colorado to push into western portions of Texas. Without the high pressure’s sinking air (subsidence) overhead, we’ll also see an uptick in afternoon popup shower and thunderstorm chances nearly statewide later this week, the weekend, and next week. It will remain hot for the next several days, but temperatures will start to come down as we see more cloud cover, isolated to scattered rain chances, and a weak cool front move south. We’re not talking about September weather, but hopefully, it’s something.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl has rapidly intensified into a potentially catastrophic category-five hurricane. With maximum sustained winds reaching 165 MPH and gusts approaching 200 MPH, the hurricane is currently moving westward towards Jamia, where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday afternoon. However, hurricanes of this intensity rarely maintain their strength for long, and wind shear is predicted to weaken Beryl over the next few days. By the time the hurricane reaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday or Friday, its maximum sustained winds should have decreased to around 100 MPH. Of course, as with any weather system, there’s always the chance it could defy the forecast.

Where Beryl goes after Thursday and Friday is a great question and one that we can’t give a great answer to at this stage. Forecast confidence remains low. Some data suggests the hurricane will be pushed west into mainland Mexico from the Yucatan. Other data suggests the system, likely in a much-weakened state, may pull north in the absence of our upper-level high pressure and approach the Texas Gulf Coast on Saturday or Sunday. Even if the system does take the northern track, we note it will likely be a shell of its current state – much weaker thanks to transferring the Yucatan Peninsula and dealing with less favorable atmosphere conditions. Nevertheless, we will need to carefully monitor the track over the next few days, as some impacts to the Texas Gulf Coast may occur if the trend ends up north. For now, we remain in monitoring mode.

Tropical moisture may increase the threat of heavier rains to South Texas and the Coastal Bend early next week. Of course, if Beryl moves further north, we may also have to deal with strong winds and coastal flooding.

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