Good morning and happy Sunday! Warm, humid and dry will be the theme for today with just isolated shower activity expected today as high pressure shifts a little further east across the state. Looks like our next rain chances will not arrive until Monday through Wednesday as high pressure wobbles back westward, and even that will be confined primarily across parts of the panhandle, northwest and northern Texas. More on that further down in the blog. For today, highs will be seasonably warm…and humid…with heat index values from north central/northeast Texas down towards the coast reaching values of 100 to 104 degrees today. Another day to avoid strenuous outdoor activity during the heat of the afternoon if at all possible.
Rain chances today will be slim and split between eastern Texas and the higher terrain of western Texas with the central portion of the state mainly dry. Some of the western Texas storms could become strong with heavy downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
By Monday into Tuesday, our high pressure ridge weakens and shifts southwest down into Mexico at about the same time a cold front advances into the panhandle. This will set up a northwest upper level flow pattern which will be favorable for the return of abundant rain chances across northern Texas through Tuesday. The cold front will be rather weak, which means it won’t drop very far into the state. The mid to upper level winds, the steering currents for weather systems, will also be weak which means the storms that form will not move very much. There will be plenty of moisture to work with ahead of the cold front. And the front is expected to stall out…potentially across the south rolling plains and into north central Texas…which could mean several days of slow storms with heavy, soaking rain with some areas seeing upwards of 4 inches by late Wednesday. This is pretty impressive for this time of the year when rain is typically getting hard to come by. We’ll be keeping an eye on this and bring you updates as the forecast continues to refine.