At 8:20 PM a line of severe thunderstorms extended from just west of Nocona south along a line to Jacksboro, Palo Pinto, Rising Star, to 15 miles west of Coleman. Additional storms extended from 15 miles south of San Angelo to 10 miles northwest of Eldorado. Most of this activity is moving east at 35 to 40 MPH. We are also watching a small cluster of storms in Denton county moving north into Cooke county – this storm may become a hail threat over the next few minutes. The strongest storms in this line have a history of producing wind damage in Wichita Falls with wind gusts measured up to 70 MPH. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds over 70 MPH, quarter size hail, and isolated tornadoes as it moves east towards I-35. At present course this line will likely move into the D/FW Metroplex between 10 PM and 12 AM. The line itself may strengthen with an enhancement of straight line winds possible. We’ll watch trends closely since if the line organizes more it could start producing brief tornadoes. Any discrete storms that develop ahead of the squall line could become supercellular with a tornado risk tonight. That isn’t expected to become a widespread/significant issue but its something we’ll have to watch for tonight.

The 0Z HRRR weather model has the line of storms extending from near Paris to Corsicana to Waco at 2 AM – although I’m not sure it’ll take that long for the storms to impact Central Texas. We also note the HRRR starts to intensify the storms south of San Angelo into a second line/complex as they move towards San Antonio and Austin this evening. Large hail and damaging straight line winds would be possible with this cluster. The line of storms – in a weakened state compared to what will impact North Texas tonight – will be moving into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains after 4 AM. Some storms may still be strong.