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Upcoming Week of Severe Storm Chances in Texas; Begins Sunday in Western Texas

May is just about upon us. It should be no surprise that we’re anticipating an active week of convective weather potential. Multiple days of severe thunderstorm potential are evident over the next week. While the impacts from severe thunderstorms aren’t welcome, we certainly are looking forward to the chance for precipitation. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that we’ve been dealing with drought over the last six months. I’m not looking forward to the upcoming summer, especially if we don’t have some good rains over the next six weeks.

Sunday & Sunday Night

Tomorrow, a busy, severe weather day is expected across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and points east into Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards Plateau. The threat of a few severe storms may spread east into Texoma and North Texas after midnight Tuesday.

Severe weather outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center utilize a five-level risk scale. Each risk level is based on the probability of severe storms within twenty-five miles of any given point, such as your location. A level one risk is the lowest and means isolated/short-lived severe storms are possible. A level five risk is the highest, is quite rare, and indicates a significant tornado outbreak or derecho is likely. Being in or near any risk zone means you may have stronger storms in your vicinity.

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Latest severe weather outlook

A level 3 (out of 5) risk for severe storms includes the western half of the Texas Panhandle, most of the South Plains, Rolling Plains, south into the Permian Basin. A few cities included are Dalhart, Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, and Fort Stockton. The standard level 2 (out of 5) risk for severe storms consists of the eastern half of the Texas Panhandle, West-Central Texas, Northwest Texas, the western Big Country, the western Concho Valley, higher elevations south of Interstate 10 off the Trans-Pecos Valley, and the Edwards Plateau. A level 1 (out of 5) risk for severe storms includes Texoma and western North Texas.

Threats

Hail is likely to be tomorrow’s most common severe weather hazard. The most intense storms may produce destructive hail larger than the size of a baseball. Localized damaging straight-line winds of 70 to 80 miles per hour are also possible. Tornadoes may also occur, but the tornado threat is expected to remain on the low side due to modest low-level moisture and some drier air. We’ll keep an eye on mesoscale parameters (ingredients over small regions versus the overall picture) that could enhance a tornado threat locally.

Timing & Discussion

Simulated weather model radar from 2 PM Sunday through 12 AM Monday across Texas. We'll see several to numerous severe thunderstorms tomorrow across western portions of Texas. Those will spread east into the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, Texoma, and portions of North Texas tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

Thunderstorm initiation may begin by 2 PM central across the Trans-Pecos Valley and eastern New Mexico. We anticipate multiple supercell thunderstorms will evolve early tomorrow afternoon. The number and intensity of storms will increase during the mid-afternoon hours. Storms will tend to move northeast, but organized supercells will move right of the mean flow more easily. Several severe thunderstorms will be underway from the Texas Panhandle south into the western Edwards Plateau by dinner-time Sunday.  This will include West Texas and the Permian Basin.

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All facets of severe weather will likely be ongoing – with destructive hail and straight-line winds the most common hazards. While not high-confidence, there is also a lower chance for isolated severe thunderstorm development further east into the Big Country and North Texas late tomorrow afternoon and early Sunday evening. If those individual storms don’t fire in the Big Country or North Texas late tomorrow afternoon, we’ll still see storms approaching the west tomorrow evening.

Regardless, thunderstorms further west will continue progressing east/northeast well into the evening hours on Sunday. We should see storms start congealing into clusters versus isolated, individual cells within a few hours after sunset. Those storms could continue progressing off to the east/northeast well into tomorrow night with a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Some of that activity is likely to push east into North Texas, and we’ll also have to watch storms coming into the Edwards Plateau from Mexico.

Thunderstorms will continue to decrease in intensity late tomorrow night and into the pre-dawn hours Tuesday as they move east. Nevertheless, severe weather may continue past midnight in the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, Texoma, and North Texas. We’ll get a better grasp on the late-night storm potential once we get into tomorrow and have a better idea of the overall evolution of the thunderstorm event. On the bright side, we expect healthy rainfall rates from most thunderstorms tomorrow, and Western Texas needs every drop of rain.

Monday

The threat of a few severe thunderstorms will shift east on Monday. We have a level 2 (out of 5) risk for severe storms across Northwest Texas. A level 1 (out of 5) risk of severe storms runs east of the dryline across the Big Country and Concho Valley. Severe weather outlooks are based on the number and probability of severe storms in an area, not precisely the intensity of said storms. While we may not have too many storms on Monday south of the Red River, those that develop will likely pack a punch in the hail department. Let’s get through tomorrow before we try to focus on Monday’s storm potential. Tomorrow’s storms will play a role in how Monday’s setup. Late Monday afternoon and Monday evening would be the time frame for new severe storm development.

Tuesday-Thursday

Tuesday may be somewhat of a down day as a cool front moves south into Texas. While a low threat for severe storms may materialize, it seems more of a ‘quiet day’ right now. We’ll return to a weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted Wednesday and Thursday for severe weather chances in Northern Texas. Let’s deal with those days once we get past Monday. I’m optimistic we’ll see decent rain chances over the upcoming week, though!

David Reimer

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