Discussion – 

8

Discussion – 

8

Texas: Severe Storm Chances Are Back And Summer Heat Is Here!

As the summer heat intensifies in Texas, we’re all looking ahead for hope of a cool down. Our next cool front might not be as soon as we hope. Thunderstorm chances are on the horizon for northern parts of the state, and Wednesday could potentially be a busy severe weather day. Hail, wind, and even a few tornadoes could pose a problem. Stay prepared and let’s discuss it in this Tuesday edition of the Texas Weather Roundup!

Few storms, still rowdy today

Be aware, isolated severe thunderstorms could strike this afternoon through the mid-evening hours across Texoma, North Texas, into the Hill Country and Concho Valley. While we don’t anticipate a high number of storms today, any that do form could bring hail and strong wind gusts. The atmosphere is charged with our summer-time tropical moisture and heat, so even a few storms could misbehave. Stay cautious and prepared.

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More severe storms likely tomorrow

Several severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening across Texoma, North Texas, Northeast Texas, the Ark-La-Tex, into eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Fewer storms, but still severe, are possible in the Hill Country and Concho Valley. The strongest storms may produce damaging hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and pose a threat of a tornado.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a busier severe thunderstorm across northern Texas. Several severe thunderstorms are probable Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening across Texoma, North Texas, into Northeast Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. A few storms are also possible farther southwest into the Hill Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards Plateau. A stronger upper-level lift tomorrow and a weak front will provide more ‘oomph’ to bust through the lid (cap) on the atmosphere.

Stronger wind shear and an extremely unstable airmass will promote severe thunderstorm potential. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs (maybe bigger), damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a few tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms. If we see a complex or cluster of storms organized, the threat of hurricane-force wind gusts will increase. That possibility seems highest across North Texas and Northeast Texas. If storms maintain more of a semi-discrete behavior, storms will be supercells with very large to giant hail along with some tornado threat. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are possible. A stronger cap (lid on the atmosphere) will keep storms more isolated with southward extent; though very large hail and strong winds are likely with any storm. We’ll see thunderstorms decrease in coverage and intensity by late Wednesday evening.

Storm chances on Thursday onward

Forecast rain over the next several days will be focused on North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. Those with ongoing flooding across the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and East Texas will remain mostly dry.

At least isolated severe storms are possible again Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. Some potential for storms will continue into the weekend; but nothing widespread seems evident at this point. That is good news for East Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas where we need to dry out. Y’all will mostly get that wish filled this week, though it’s going to be hot and ridiculously humid.

Summer Heat is Here

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All of Texas will be on the hot side this weekend, with afternoon temperatures in the 90s and 100s. Heat index temperatures across the eastern half of Texas will be seven to fifteen degrees above the actual air temperature this week. Overnight low temperatures for the southeastern/eastern half of Texas are staying on the warm side, bringing little relief to those without air conditioning. We don’t expect that to change as we continue into early next week.

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David Reimer

8 Comments

  1. Aaron Wright

    Bout sick of this weather.

  2. Aaron Wright

    Bout sick of this weather.

  3. Robert Riemenschneider

    Don’t expect much. DFW has a cap.

    • Haxlie Pruitt

      Robert Riemenschneider actually they said we wouldn’t tomorrow

    • Robert Riemenschneider

      Haxlie Pruitt Not much as expected

    • Haxlie Pruitt

      Robert Riemenschneider well I was in a severe storm twice today, if you weren’t then you’re lucky.

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