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Multi-Day Severe Weather & High-Impact Wildfire Threat across Texas

We’re back in a severe weather risk for the fourth or fifth Monday in a row. I do dislike Mother Nature when she gets into these kinds of patterns. Luckily, I do not believe we will be dealing with a widespread severe weather issue today. We may not even have more than one or two storms develop later today. Tomorrow into Wednesday may be a different story, but more about that in a bit.

Wildfire Concerns

Before diving into severe weather chances over the coming days, I want to point out the wildfire risk west of the dryline. We’re looking at several days of very high to extreme wildfire danger across the western half of Texas. Tuesday is shaping up to be a particularly dangerous situation with extremely critical to near historic fire weather conditions. This is serious business and I wish I had the time to dedicate an entire discussion to it this morning.

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Tomorrow is the day where we can see multiple 10,000+ acre wildfires develop and move 15+ miles in a single burning period. We’ve had so many high-end wildfire days lately that they start to blend together. Still, tomorrow could be another Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak. Wednesday is shaping to be a busy fire-weather day across the western two-thirds (or more) of Texas as ridiculously dry air filters behind our departing storm system. Tuesday will also feature powerful winds and blowing dust across west Texas.

Severe Weather Chances Today – Wednesday

Weather models, including our more reliable short-term high-resolution guidance, have not done too well over the last twelve hours. Scattered storms have been ongoing overnight across South-Central and Central Texas. Most weather models did not depict that, and they’re still not grasping the situation well. With that in mind, we’ll be basing today’s forecast on experience and a bit of intuition based on the overall weather setup.

Severe weather outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center utilize a five-level risk scale. Each risk level is based on the probability of severe storms within twenty-five miles of any given point, such as your location. A level one risk is the lowest and means isolated/short-lived severe storms are possible. A level five risk is the highest, is quite rare, and indicates a significant tornado outbreak or derecho is likely. Being in or near any risk zone means you may have stronger storms in your vicinity.

This Afternoon & Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms across Northeast Texas and North Texas. A level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms includes Central Texas, the Hill Country, and South-Central Texas. While the risk levels are on the lower end of the spectrum, that is due to limited storm coverage. You can view today’s latest severe weather outlook here.

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We may only see one or two storms develop this afternoon. However, any storms that develop later today or this evening will likely be severe and supercelluar. Very large hail up to the size of tennis balls (perhaps larger) would be possible, along with localized damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level wind shear would keep the tornado threat very low.

There’s a chance we may have a ‘cap bust’ and not have storms develop. Still, considering we had storms yesterday (with a more substantial cap). Those storms generated outflow boundaries, and I think we will see at least one or two storms develop. The movement would be off to the east/northeast, perhaps more easterly.

The most likely timeframe for an isolated severe storm will be between 5 PM and 10 PM today. The cap (lid on the atmosphere) will come slamming down a few hours after sunset – resulting in any ongoing storms likely dissipating by/near 10 PM. Assuming we have a few storms later today, they may lay down outflow boundaries that could play a role in Tuesday’s severe weather setup.

Tuesday Afternoon & Night

Tuesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day across the eastern half of Texas. Uncertainties do remain, including questions over the strength of the cap (lid on the atmosphere). Tuesday will have the ingredients in place to support significant severe weather potential, excluding those uncertainties.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms across Texoma, North Texas, and Central Texas. This includes Bowie east to Bonham south through the D/FW Metroplex, Waco, Killeen, and Georgetown. A level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms consists of Northeast Texas, East Texas, the Golden Triangle, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, and the Hill Country. A level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms includes South-Central Texas and the Coastal Plains. You can view tomorrow’s severe weather outlook in detail here.

The higher the risk level, the more likely you are to have severe storms in your immediate region. However, any risk level in or near your area means a chance for severe storms. Please don’t get too fixated on the exact line/risk level placement – they’re going to change some by tomorrow afternoon.

Threats

Supercelluar storm modes are anticipated on Tuesday. The most intense thunderstorms may produce damaging hail larger than the size of a baseball, localized damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Suppose we have a complex of thunderstorms or a squall line develop Tuesday night. In that case, the threat of damaging straight-line winds, pocket-change size hail, and brief tornadoes will continue.

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Timing & Detailed Discussion

Tomorrow’s overall weather setup is a complex one. Multiple rounds of storms are possible, and I’ll try to highlight those individually.

Morning Storms?

Spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning in South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas. Some storms may produce pea to nickel size hail if this activity materializes.

East/Southeast Texas Storms Early Afternoon

The cap across East Texas and Southeast Texas will quickly weaken during the afternoon hours. While the dryline will remain west of Interstate 35, enough lift from daytime heating and small-scale sources of lift may be enough to fire up isolated supercells. They will likely be severe if we see open warm-sector development (a fancy term for isolated storms well east of the dryline). All modes of severe weather, including a tornado threat, would occur. This threat may develop as soon as 1-2 PM Tuesday and spread into western Louisiana. Storms would move to the east/northeast.

Late Afternoon Dryline Storms near I-35

By mid to late afternoon, back along the dryline west of Interstate 35, we anticipate isolated thunderstorm development after 3 PM. Strong instability, plenty of moisture, and strong wind shear aloft will support supercelluar storm modes. Questions remain on the amount of lift available and the overall number of storms.

Like today, any storms that develop could quickly intensify and become severe. Damaging hail larger than the size of a baseball will be likely with the most intense storms. Localized damaging wind gusts and the threat of a few tornadoes will also exist. If discrete storms are ongoing after 7 PM, the threat of tornadoes will increase as low-level wind shear ramps up. Storms would be moving east/northeast – with more intense storms moving east.

The most likely zones for scattered intense supercells have been highlighted in SPC’s level 3 risk. We’ll need to monitor today’s storms as they may leave outflow boundaries that could be focal points for increased severe weather potential tomorrow. Outflow boundaries can provide a localized corridor of higher low-level wind shear and also a small-scale source of lift (important when breaking through the cap/lid).

A few supercells tomorrow afternoon may be long-lived and track into the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Northeast Texas tomorrow evening. What I’ve just described is not entirely written in stone. If for some reason, the cap/lid is much more robust, or we have less ‘lift’ than expected, we could struggle to see many storms develop tomorrow near the dryline. No storms mean no severe weather, though; given the overall setup, I believe we will have at least a couple of storms ‘punch’ through the cap tomorrow afternoon – which will be problematic.

Tomorrow Evening/Night

The threat of severe weather may continue into the night as storms move into Northeast Texas, East Texas, and parts of Southeast Texas from the west. While uncertain, we may see a line of storms develop late tomorrow night in Oklahoma south into North Texas. If that line of storms develops, we’d see it move east across Texoma, Northeast Texas, and eastern North Texas Wednesday morning – with some storms capable of producing pocket-change size hail and strong winds. Hopefully, we’ll get a better grasp on tomorrow night’s stormy potential later today.

Wednesday

The threat of a few severe storms will continue Wednesday morning across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. I anticipate severe weather chances will end in Texas as storms move off into Louisiana and Arkansas by early afternoon. Yet another severe weather outbreak is likely on Wednesday for our friends in ‘Dixie Alley.’

I plan to grab a few hours of sleep and be back at it early this afternoon. We’ll be watching short-term data, but primarily observational trends, to determine this afternoon’s storm potential – and if there are any enhanced corridors where storm development is more likely. We’ll also keep digging into tomorrow’s setup. While I’ve focused on Texas, tomorrow could be a ‘dryline setup’ up into southern Nebraska. Plan on a detailed forecast update for tomorrow’s storm chances by this evening and mid-afternoon for any stormy mischief chances for today.

 

David Reimer

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