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Severe storms tomorrow beginning at lunch-time through the evening

Tomorrow's severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

Severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow across the eastern half of Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and Northeast Texas for scattered severe thunderstorm potential. On a coverage scale from one to five, the SPC has the aforementioned regions in a level two risk. I would not be surprised if portions of eastern North Texas and East Texas get upgraded to a coverage level of three in a future outlook. Higher risk levels indicate a higher chance of severe weather within your local area. In terms of severe weather hazards, a storm in a level one risk could produce the same hazards as a higher risk level. The most intense storms tomorrow may produce very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging winds, and heavy rain.

Tornado Potential

Tomorrow's tornado risk from the Storm Prediction Center

Tomorrow’s tornado risk from the Storm Prediction Center

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There is a low potential for tornadoes tomorrow afternoon. We’re more concerned about a higher risk for a few tornadoes across eastern North Texas, the northeastern Brazos Valley, and East Texas. An area of low pressure near Childress tomorrow afternoon will push a warm front north to near Interstate 20 or Interstate 30 in East Texas. Low-level wind shear will be increasing as severe storms move into East Texas from the west. Ingredients will be in place to support the threat of tornadoes, but storm mode is projected to be messy.

A messy storm mode means we expect several thunderstorms in the region versus a few ‘discrete’ supercells. Overall ingredients may support tornadoes, but if there are too many storms competing to become dominant, the threat for tornadoes will remain low. I do expect a few tornadoes tomorrow afternoon with a messier storm mode. If for some reason, they end up having fewer storms, or a storm can become an intense supercell without interference from surrounding storms, the threat for tornadoes would increase in parts of East Texas tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening.

If there is one tornado tomorrow and it happens to come down your street, it will be a ‘red-letter day’ for you. Pay attention to the weather, and if a tornado warning is issued for your location, implement your safety plan. Tomorrow is a typical spring-time setup in Texas. We deal with severe weather chances several days each spring.

Timing

Let’s take a look at what this afternoon’s run of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (18Z HRRR) is showing for tomorrow. As I’ll demonstrate below, just because one model shows something does not mean it will actually verify. It is wise to use a blend of weather models when making a forecast. I’m showing images from the HRRR for timing-related purposes. Still, the caveat of the radar may look completely different in reality.

Late Morning/Early Afternoon

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 1 PM Friday

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 1 PM Friday

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be underway by mid-morning across North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. Some storms will likely become stronger with hail by 11 AM in North-Central Texas as upper-level lift increases. We could have scattered severe storms with large hail underway by lunchtime in the D/FW Metroplex south toward Waco and Temple. Activity is expected to move east/northeastward.

Mid-Afternoon

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 4 PM Friday

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 4 PM Friday

High-resolution weather models are in decent agreement that several to numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing by mid-afternoon across eastern North Texas, moving into East Texas, extending back southwest into Central Texas and the northern Brazos Valley. Very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding is likely with the most intense storms. Those same weather models show a ‘messy’ storm mode versus one with discrete supercells. Severe weather would still occur, but with a comparatively lower risk of giant hail and several tornadoes. A few tornadoes are still possible tomorrow afternoon with intense storms interacting with a warm front (projected to be near Interstate 20 in East Texas).

Dinner-time

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 7 PM Friday

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 7 PM Friday

By dinner-time, we should still have numerous thunderstorms in progress across East Texas. It is possible we could have more of a ‘rain shield in Northeast Texas if earlier storms generate cool outflow. Stronger to severe storms would likely still be underway closer to the warm front in East Texas, with all severe weather hazards possible. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible in eastern North Texas and East Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Flash flooding occurs where multiple heavy thunderstorms ‘train’ or move over the same locations. We also note more isolated thunderstorms with large hail potential could develop farther west in North Texas near the dryline – if enough destabilization can occur after the storms earlier in the day.

Data from the 12Z ECMWF for 7 PM Friday

Data from the 12Z ECMWF for 7 PM Friday

Those of you in Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and Southeast Texas might be wondering why the 18Z HRRR (model simulated images shown above) are keeping y’all dry. Remember, there’s a plethora of weather model data out there. For example, the European Weather Model (ECMWF) has numerous thunderstorms in progress at dinner time across North Texas, East Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. The ECMWF’s solution would have hailers in those regions. I would tend to lean with the HRRR regarding storm mode and timing but include the ECWMF’s solution in thunderstorms firing up farther south.

Late Tomorrow Evening & Tomorrow Night

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 10 PM Friday

Simulated weather radar from the 18Z HRRR for 10 PM Friday

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As we progress into the late evening, we should see thunderstorms continuing east of Interstate 45 across the Ark-La-Tex and East Texas. The most intense storms will still produce large hail, localized damaging winds, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado. Thunderstorms are likely tomorrow afternoon in Western Oklahoma as well. Those storms will likely grow upscale into a squall line that moves east/southeast across Southern Oklahoma tomorrow evening.

Depending on the southward extension of the storms, along with their overall trajectory, we may see another round of strong/severe storms in Texoma and the Red River Counties of North/Northeast Texas late tomorrow evening. Damaging straight-line winds and hail would be the primary threat with those storms. We should be done with thunderstorm chances before sunrise on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday and Sunday both look to feature pleasant weather for late April. We should be dry with high temperatures in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. A classic spring severe weather setup looks like it’ll bring more severe weather chances on Tuesday to the eastern half of Texas. Significant wildfire danger and blowing dust is also likely west of the dryline on Tuesday, especially in the western third of Texas.

David Reimer

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