Discussion – 

90

Discussion – 

90

More Intense Storms Expected in Texas

Severe storms will continue to pose a significant threat in Texas as we end the work week and head into the weekend. We’ve already experienced hail storms this morning in parts of the Concho Valley, and another round of intense supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The most intense storms may produce tornadoes, destructive hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and flooding rainfall. Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, the northern Brazos Valley, Concho Valley, Big Country, and Northwest Texas are in today’s risk zone, underscoring the potential severity of these storms.

A complicated forecast will unfold over the next two to three days. I had hoped yesterday’s storms would leave a more stabilized airmass for today and reduce thunderstorm chances. Overnight observational data shows my hopes were in vain. Unlike yesterday, today’s forecast for storm development will rely on existing outflow boundaries (left over from yesterday’s and this morning’s storms) along with the dryline. We won’t have a major source of lift overhead this afternoon. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s and 90s should be enough to bust through the cap this afternoon if that’s even a significant deterrent for some storms.

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Severe Storms This Afternoon into Tonight

With hailers underway this morning, we may see a quick transition from ongoing activity to new development this afternoon. Exactly where storms develop this afternoon will depend on where boundaries have set up, any temperature differential (rain-cooled airmasses), and subtle sources of lift. We anticipate significant severe weather potential once isolated to scattered supercell storms develop this afternoon. Like yesterday, ingredients will favor destructive hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and at least a low threat of tornadoes.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning through tonight across the northern half of Texas. The most intense storms are expected late this afternoon through the evening hours. Giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible with the most intense storms. Most folks will not have a storm today; but even with only a few storms, we anticipate them to be intense.

Some data is concerning with stronger low-level wind shear this afternoon and evening compared to yesterday. If that stronger trend is verified, we may see a higher tornado risk with the most intense storms late this afternoon into this evening. That doesn’t mean all storms will produce tornadoes or softball-size hail, but we must remain vigilant. A lot can happen between this morning’s forecast and this afternoon. Truthfully, we’ll have to monitor real-time/near-term observational data to pinpoint specific corridors of concern. It will probably be rowdy if you have a storm in your area late this afternoon or this evening. Most folks won’t have storms, however. Like yesterday, we expect storms to weaken and decrease coverage after 9 to 10 PM. A few storms with a hail threat may continue into the late evening hours.

Storm Risk on Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening in North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas (Ark-La-Tex). We may only have a few storms, but if they develop, they'd likely produce very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts.

Isolated severe storms are possible again Friday afternoon into Friday evening east of a surface dryline from Texoma and the Ark-La-Tex south into North Texas. Any storms that develop, and there may not be many, will likely be supercells with very large hail, localized damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

Saturday’s Severe Storm Threat

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The threat of severe storms will increase on Saturday; but also looks to be confined to portions of Texoma and North Texas in proximity of the Red River. A outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes may occur in Oklahoma and Kansas.

Saturday has the potential to feature a severe weather outbreak across Kansas, Oklahoma, south into Texoma, and northern portions of Texas. As it stands this morning, it looks like most of Saturday’s ‘lift’ will be near the Red River and points north. That would limit thunderstorm chances to north of Interstate 20/30 in North Texas and Northeast Texas. Any storms that develop near or south of the Red River Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening would likely be capable of producing all modes of severe weather. We’ll need to monitor trends in case thunderstorm chances expand farther south. It could be another nasty day for our neighbors north of the Red River.

Sunday through Early Next Week

Sunday looks like a much less active day in the thunderstorm department in Texas, offering a respite from the severe weather. However, it will feature a continuation of an early summer heatwave across Texas. It will be very hot and humid across Texas. A cool front will move south across the northern half of Texas on Monday (Memorial Day), bringing some relief from near-record-high temperatures. The southern half of Texas will continue to bake with afternoon highs in the triple digits. Sunday through Tuesday don’t appear active in the thunderstorm department. We may start trending toward a more active daily dryline-storm setup for the second half of next week, but for now, we can look forward to a calmer period.

Helpful Links

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David Reimer

90 Comments

  1. Jenny McMillan Stephens

    Sara Black Craddock

    • Michael Carter

      Jenny McMillan Stephens Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  2. Stephanie Martin

    get some rest kiddo!

    • Michael Carter

      Stephanie Martin Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  3. Adam Savage

    This has been a really wet spring for the DFW area!

    • Anna-Marie Day

      Adam same for central Texas.
      Our water reserves went from being in drought conditions to full a couple weeks ago now they’re flooding

    • Anna-Marie Day

      Adam same for central Texas.
      Our water reserves went from being in drought conditions to full a couple weeks ago now they’re flooding

  4. Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo

    We already haven’t had power since the tornados yesterday, we are so tired of this 😭

    • Ana Azly

      Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo The National Weather Service is continuing to assess Today’s tornadoes 😔ilang.in/SevereWeatherWarning

    • Toriq String

      Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo The National Weather Service is continuing to assess Today’s tornadoes 😔ilang.in/SevereWeatherWarning

    • Texas Storm Chasers

      Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo so sorry 🙁

    • Marie Hastings

      Texas Storm Chasers it’s not your fault you’re doing your job thank you!!

    • Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo

      Texas Storm Chasers no, thank YOU for warning us. We appreciate yall

    • Jessica L. Cooper

      Tiny Hooves Rescue and Petting Zoo For sure! I don’t follow local news stations. I follow him and his page for accurate information. He never disappoints and is a hoot to boot.

  5. Vanessa Smith

    I’m already over the weather for this year 😳 no power for about 6000 of us in the Buffalo tx south freestone county area, wind was so bad I had to lock the door with the deadbolt to keep it shut during the storm last night.

    • Kathleen Lyle

      Vanessa Smith oakwood is out also. Literally watched the town go dark as we drove in.

  6. Rachelle Stanger Tesser

    Outdoor graduation planned in Longview today at 8PM. So just a wait and see what develops…

    • Michael Carter

      Rachelle Stanger Tesser Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  7. Deanna Ball Cayce

    Pray for Temple, we can’t handle anymore…

    • Kimberly Garner

      Deanna Ball Cayce not wrong. Last night was rough

    • Michael Carter

      Deanna Ball Cayce Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

    • Sandra Ruedi

      Deanna Ball Cayce praying for you guys/Temple

    • Tamica Williams

      Deanna Ball Cayce I West Temple and it’s bad.

    • Deanna Ball Cayce

      Tamica Williams same…it’s so bad

  8. Ana Azly

    The National Weather Service is continuing to assess Today’s tornadoes 😔ilang.in/SevereWeatherWarning

  9. Toriq String

    The National Weather Service is continuing to assess Today’s tornadoes 😔ilang.in/SevereWeatherWarning

  10. Connie Minter Jesseph

    Good Morning!
    Great Job Yesterday keeping us updated on all the storms. Had my family all across Texas watching you. ❤️❤️❤️

  11. Kim Loucks

    I wish we’d get storms in Austin once in awhile every time they get close they dissipate surely I don’t want severe storms or tornadoes which we rarely get but it’d be nice to get thunderstorms when they say we’re going to!

    • Michael Carter

      Kim Loucks Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

    • Donna Bryant

      Kim Loucks same hear in Corpus Christi

  12. Ross Perry

    Hopefully all of this misses temple . I don’t think they can handle another round

  13. Alicia Hernandez

    Jesse Hernandez Jesse Hernandez

  14. Carol Adcock Camp

    Driving from Texarkana to DFW this afternoon It’s a race to see who wins

    • Martha Fenner

      Carol Adcock Camp per usual !

    • Michael Carter

      Carol Adcock Camp Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  15. Elisabeth Brockman

    Why are the worst storms always hitting the same areas?

    • Neil Bywater

      Elisabeth Brockman tornado alley.

    • Pamela Ann

      Neil Bywater ,bogus

    • Michael Carter

      Elisabeth Brockman Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  16. Jackie Venable

    Arianne Venable , fyi. Hope it clears up for the weekend.

    • Michael Carter

      Jackie Venable Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  17. Elizabeth Beckwith

    Power has been out since 6pm last night for me too so over it

  18. Sylvia Himes

    I’m so tired of rain. I can’t get my pool to clear up.

    • Michael Carter

      Sylvia Himes Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  19. Sherri A St Vrain

    Noooo today is my graduation 🎓

    • Michael Carter

      Sherri A St Vrain Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  20. Kristen Small

    Joshua Ryan Small

    • Michael Carter

      Kristen Small Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  21. Jane Fisher Gaskill

    🥲🥲🥲🥲

    • Michael Carter

      Jane Fisher Gaskill Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  22. Alexis Griffin

    Reagan McCurlie😂😂

  23. Marilyn S May

    Better make another pot of coffee.

    • Michael Carter

      Marilyn S May Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  24. ILonka Margis

    Already starting between Lampasas and copperas cove 🥴

  25. Jennifer Sanders

    What an insane season this is. The tornadoes are literally destroying our country piece by piece. 😢

    • Michael Carter

      Jennifer Sanders Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  26. Caitlyn Cruz

    I loved watching you yesterday. Your some of your commentary was hilarious. (Only when it wasn’t serious). Thanks for the laugh.

    • Michael Carter

      Caitlyn Cruz Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  27. Wayne Carter

    We got very lucky in Waskom Tx. Yesterday evening. The closest lightening strike was 5 miles away from our place. Got some rain but everything went north or south or waited till it got across the state line to act crazy.

    • Michael Carter

      Wayne Carter Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  28. Christy Brown-Bristow

    We live in an area where they say we’re getting storms, but they always go around. I know it’s probably just a matter of time, but feel blessed so far

    • Kim Loucks

      Christy Brown-Bristow I live in the same type of area but I get frustrated cuz I love thunderstorms and I get my patio all prepared and they don’t even show up..

    • Michael Carter

      Christy Brown-Bristow Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

    • Jenny Espinosa

      Kim Loucks same!

    • Christy Brown-Bristow

      Kim Loucks same here! We got everything ready for yesterday and we didn’t even get enough rain to water the garden

  29. Samuel Taylor

    Angie Gomez Ortiz Linda Gomez

  30. Sarah Hilton

    Oh man… 🤦🏼‍♀️ last night was scary. I don’t want anymore of that mess. Hopefully it holds off long enough for the roofers to tarp what damages were done.

    • Michael Carter

      Sarah Hilton Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  31. Samantha Seaton

    I don’t live in the area, but was driving from Houston to Abilene (through Temple) when the tornado hit. It was very hectic and I will be praying for all of you!

    • Michael Carter

      Samantha Seaton Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  32. Jamie Magness

    Nicole Nuche Herrmann

    • Michael Carter

      Jamie Magness Your profile have been so adorable, and I admired your profile.. I had like to be friends with you, and I tried to send you a friend request, but it doesn’t go through.. If you don’t mind, why don’t you send me a friend request so we can be friends on Facebook.. Hope you don’t mind?😊

  33. Veronica Maria M. Flores

    Any idea of the high winds reported in cameron?
    Kinda curious since thats my hometown

  34. Veronica Maria M. Flores

    Belton cancelled their graduation 😔

    • Donna Dent

      Veronica Maria M. Flores no electricity at the Expo Center.

    • Kaleigh Mubasher

      Veronica Maria M. Flores both schools?
      Those poor kiddos

    • Kat Bieb

      Veronica Maria M. Flores postponed, not cancelled.

  35. Melissa Griffiths

    Live feed please????

  36. Sara Jo Montgomery

    Raining in San Angelo right now.

  37. Kelly Giles Bunievatz

    I am so OVER this weather season

  38. Brent Johnson

    This Spring needs to calm down now.

  39. Amy Hall

    Thank you for keeping us updated! We love Texas Storm Chasers ❤️

  40. Amy Hall

    Thank you for keeping us updated! We love Texas Storm Chasers ❤️

  41. Misti Willborn

    Zoey Matthews Chrissy DiTirro

  42. Misti Willborn

    Zoey Matthews Chrissy DiTirro

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