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March 12 & 13 Weekend Outlook – Nice Warm-up Ahead – Severe Weather Returns Monday

Weekend Outlook

Good morning Texas and happy weekend!  Friday’s front brought unseasonably cold temperatures this morning, but thankfully they won’t last for long.  Dry air in place across the state combined with the return of southwest surface wind this afternoon will help the atmosphere to quickly heat up.  Highs by 3-4pm this afternoon will get into the mid-60s across parts of western Texas, low 60s for the panhandle region, upper 50s to low 60s across central, south and southeast Texas, mid 50s across north, northeast and far east Texas.  For Sunday, it gets even better with daytime highs about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday overall.  On Sunday we’ll see highs climb into the mid-70s across western Texas.  The panhandle region will see temps climb into the upper 60s to low 70s.  Deep south Texas and the RGV region will see similar highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.  Elsewhere, mid-60s will be abundant.  All perfect for any outdoor activities or Spring Break travel plans that you might have.

Wildfire Threats on Sunday

It wouldn’t be March without the threat of dry and windy conditions and the threat for wildfires.  Critical and Elevated Fire Weather conditions will be present on Sunday across a large portion of the Texas panhandle, northwest Texas, the south rolling plains and down into the upper Permian Basin region on Sunday.  Humidity levels are expected to range between 5 to 10%  on Sunday with very gusty southwest winds between 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40mph.  As always, take extra precautions to avoid any activity that could cause a fire as it could easily spread uncontrollably in these conditions.

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Current Drought Conditions – Rainfall Outlook

It goes without saying that wildfire conditions and drought go hand in hand.  And we are dry across most of the state…very dry…and it just keeps getting worse.  Add to that, the climate outlook for the next several weeks does not offer us much hope for meaningful rainfall in the immediate future.  For the work week ahead, much of the rainfall on the graphic below will fall on Monday/Monday night with our next batch of storms.  After that, only another small chance, again across the eastern half of the state late in the work week.  No help for our extremely parched areas west of the I-35 corridor.  Overall, our current La Nina pattern which typically brings dryer and warmer conditions is expected to continue for the Spring months and into early Summer.  This doesn’t mean we won’t have any rain at all, but it does indicate drought busting rains will be harder to come by.  This is March which should be the start of our rainy season, but it may be April before we see any meaningful rainfall benefits.  Until then, please keep praying for rain!

Severe Weather Threats Return on Monday

It also would not be March without talking severe weather threats.  The chance for strong to severe storms will return again on Monday for mainly the eastern half of the state ahead of our next cold front.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2) for areas mainly along and east of the I-45 corridor.  At this point, the forecast calls for storms to begin developing late Monday afternoon into the evening hours along and ahead of the cold front as it moves into north central and northeast Texas.  The tornado parameters are low at this time due to lack of good near surface wind shear; however, the risk for damaging straight line winds will be present especially once the storms begin to congeal into one or more squall line segments moving eastward after sunset.  Isolated large hail will also be possible with any of the stronger storm cells that develop.  For now, just a heads up so you’re prepared and be sure to check back with us for additional updates as this gets closer.

Jenny Brown

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