Discussion – 

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Discussion – 

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Line of strong/severe storms for Texas Tuesday Evening – Wednesday Morning

A complex and messy thunderstorm forecast is in-store for Texas over the upcoming two days. We won’t be dealing with a typical late-May severe weather situation, but we’ll still have stronger storms to keep an eye on. Overall, we’re looking at good news in the rain department as we try to put a little dent in the drought.

I’ll start off by showing the forecast rain totals over the next two days. This graphic shows projected rain totals from 7 AM this morning through 7 AM Thursday There will be some who get more, and some who get less. Those who get less will undoubtedly be the ones filling our inbox with hate mail, but alas, that’s life. We should see a widespread soaking over the next two days as a seasonably strong cool front moves southeast.

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We’ll dive into the timing of storms coming up. Here is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for today and tonight. We have a large geographical area under a level 1 & level 2 (out of 5) risk for severe storms. Severe weather outlooks are based on the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of any given location – like your home. The higher the risk level, the higher the chance of severe storms in your vicinity. You can view the latest severe weather outlooks for Texas here. They’re updated around 1 AM, 8 AM, 11:30 AM, 3 PM, and 8 PM daily.

At the time of this writing (about 615am) we have another round of strong storms moving east/southeast across the Rio Grande Valley. Pockets of rain and storms continue across West Texas, the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and into Texoma. Last night’s storms will leave outflow boundaries that will play a role in thunderstorm chances later today. A cool front across West Texas into Northwest Texas will also continue to slowly move south today – and be a focus for storms throughout the next two days.

Hopefully, we'll have a few hours of 'quiet' late this morning. With a negligible cap or lid on the atmosphere, we may see new storms begin developing around lunchtime near outflow boundaries across Northwest Texas, North Texas, and down into the Golden Triangle. Some of these storms could become severe with quarter to golf ball size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. Not all storms will become that rowdy. By 4-5 PM, I anticipate multiple severe thunderstorms will be underway across West Texas east into the Concho Valley, Big Country, and into North Texas. Some of these storms could be supercelluar with a risk of very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and the chance for a tornado. Today's tornado risk is low, but given the likelihood of outflow boundaries locally enhancing low-level wind shear in spots, we'll need to keep an eye on storms. Most storms will move east, but we'll likely have some deviant movers more northeast or southeast. A cluster or line of thunderstorms should be underway by dinner-time from the Concho Valley and West-Central Texas east into the Big Country and Texoma. A few, more isolated storms may also be underway in the Edwards Plateau. Damaging straight-line winds, quarter-size hail, heavy rainfall, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. The line of storms will move southeast this evening, overnight, and into the morning hours on Wednesday - all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Now you can see why we're expecting a healthy-looking rain map by the time we get into tomorrow. The chance for severe storms will slowly decrease late tonight, but we may continue to have stronger storms through Wednesday morning as the squall line slowly moves southeast.

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Hopefully, we’ll have a few hours of ‘quiet’ late this morning. With a negligible cap or lid on the atmosphere, we may see new storms begin developing around lunchtime near outflow boundaries across Northwest Texas, North Texas, and down into the Golden Triangle. Some of these storms could become severe with quarter to golf ball size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. Not all storms will become that rowdy.

By 4-5 PM, I anticipate multiple severe thunderstorms will be underway across West Texas east into the Concho Valley, Big Country, and into North Texas. Some of these storms could be supercelluar with a risk of very large hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and the chance for a tornado. Today’s tornado risk is low, but given the likelihood of outflow boundaries locally enhancing low-level wind shear in spots, we’ll need to keep an eye on storms. Most storms will move east, but we’ll likely have some deviant movers more northeast or southeast.

A cluster or line of thunderstorms should be underway by dinner-time from the Concho Valley and West-Central Texas east into the Big Country and Texoma. A few, more isolated storms may also be underway in the Edwards Plateau. Damaging straight-line winds, quarter-size hail, heavy rainfall, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible with the strongest storms. The line of storms will move southeast this evening, overnight, and into the morning hours on Wednesday – all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Now you can see why we’re expecting a healthy-looking rain map by the time we get into tomorrow. The chance for severe storms will slowly decrease late tonight, but we may continue to have stronger storms through Wednesday morning as the squall line slowly moves southeast.

Our storm chasers will be out again today. We’ll have their live video on our YouTube channel and here on our website this afternoon. I’ll be in the weather office to provide severe weather coverage later today, tonight, and into Wednesday morning – though hopefully it won’t be needed!

David Reimer

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