A weak La Nina has developed. These patterns can result in extended periods of tranquil weather for Texas. That analog is playing out as we continue into a stretch of dry weather. Minus a low-end chance of rain on Tuesday on the Red River, the remainder of October will likely feature no big rain chances for Texas. Drought conditions are in place across Northeast Texas. We’ll see short-term drought impacts begin spreading across more of Texas through the end of the month. Most lakes are in good shape, but impacts on agriculture and fire danger will increase. Temperatures look to remain above-average through the end of October as well. Halloween is looking warm with evening temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.

High temperatures over the next week will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. The Rio Grande Valley and typically warmer spots in Texas could end up back in the lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s. Without any major cold fronts in the coming week we will see humidity values start to increase again.

As previously stated rain chances look very low over the next several days. We’ll get through the remainder of October without any major rains. Surface fuels such as grasses and brush that thrived with heavy rains in 2015 and 2016 are quickly drying out due to the lack of rain and above-average temperatures. The grass fire risk is gradually increasing. We’ll have to be especially mindful of the wildfire risk as we head into the winter months with dormant surface fuels.