After weeks of quiet weather, the Lone Star State is heading into a much more active stretch. A slow-moving upper-level storm system will bring multiple rounds of showers, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall from Thursday through Saturday. Some parts of Texas could pick up three to five inches of rain, raising the risk for localized flash flooding, especially across the eastern half of the state.
A dip in the jet stream will move over Texas through Saturday, creating widespread lift and instability that supports storms statewide.
Severe Weather Outlook – Thursday and Friday
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- Thursday evening: isolated to scattered severe storms west to north TX. Main threats 60–70 mph winds and hail.
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- Friday PM: scattered severe storms from West/Southwest Texas into the Hill Country. Damaging winds and hail possible.
A few storms may become strong to severe both days with hail up to golf-ball size, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and frequent lightning. The tornado threat remains very low, but not zero.
Flash Flood Potential Increases Friday–Saturday
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- Scattered flash-flood risk Friday as storms expand in coverage across Central & North Texas. Isolated risk surrounding.
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- Saturday’s flood risk shifts east toward the Brazos Valley, Houston, and East Texas as storms move east.
Rainfall rates may reach 2–3 inches per hour in localized areas, which could cause street flooding and rapid rises on creeks and streams, especially where soils have become hardened by recent dryness.
Forecast Rain Totals
WPC projects widespread 1–3″+ totals through Sunday morning, highest odds from the Brazos Valley to Southeast & East Texas.
The Weather Prediction Center projects 1–3 inches across western and central Texas and 3–5 inches or more east of I-35 through Sunday morning. This rainfall will be beneficial overall but could cause localized flooding where storms train or stall.
Looking Ahead:
Storm chances decrease by Sunday as drier air moves in. Another front early next week may bring cooler, breezy conditions statewide — a taste of fall before temperatures rebound.
Stay Weather-Aware:
📱 Download the Texas Storm Chasers App for live radar, local forecasts, and severe weather coverage → TexasWeather.App
📡 Track storms live → TexasStormChasers.com/radar
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