TODAY’S SEVERE RISK

Today’s severe weather outlook hot off the press from the Storm Prediction Center. Don’t pay too much attention to exactly where the risk lines are drawn. If you’re within or near any risk – that’s your sign to pay attention to the weather today and/or tonight.

What's Your Risk?

Learn more about the five-level risk scale utilized by the Storm Prediction Center and fellow reputable sources of weather information across the United States. 

Meteorological Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center

HAZARD-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES

Dive deeper into the severe weather threat with hazard-specific probability graphics. These more specific outlooks accompany each overall ‘day 1’ severe weather outlook. Each graphic depicts the chance of a certain hazard occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as your home).

The ‘tornado probability’ graphic depicts the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given location. These hazard-specific probabilities directly drive the overall risk level on the primary severe weather outlook. A thirty-percent chance of large hail isn’t overly unusual during the spring months, but a thirty-percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles is indicative of a rare, high-risk event (level five out of five). A hatched overlay indicates an increased potential for significant tornadoes (EF2-EF5). For a more detailed explanation on the severe weather outlook, risk scale click here

The ‘large hail probability’ graphic depicts the chance of quarter size hail (1″) or larger occurring within 25 miles of any given location. These hazard-specific probabilities directly drive the overall risk level on the primary severe weather outlook. A ‘hatched’ area overlaid on a risk means there is an increased potential for destructive hail (2″ or larger). It isn’t too unusual to have hatched areas included several times during a typical spring severe weather season in Texas. After all, many days we may only get one or two storms – but those storms end up dropping baseball size hail. For a more detailed explanation on the severe weather outlook, risk scale click here

The ‘damaging wind probability’ graphic depicts the chance of 50 Knot/58 MPH or higher wind gusts occurring within 25 miles of any given location. These hazard-specific probabilities directly drive the overall risk level on the primary severe weather outlook. A ‘hatched’ area overlaid on a risk means there is an increased potential for hurricane-force wind gusts over 75 MPH. The damaging wind outlook is for organized thunderstorm potential. Summer thunderstorms (known as popcorn storms since they can go up and collapse quickly) certainly can produce very localized damaging microbursts. However, summer-time pulse thunderstorms typically do not become organized enough to warrant an organized severe weather delineation on these outlooks. For a more detailed explanation on the severe weather outlook, risk scale click here

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