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Active Weather Ahead: Beryl To Make Impact On South Texas Sunday

Texas is set to experience an unusually active July weather pattern over the coming week, with rain chances and below-average temperatures (by July standards)! We’ll also have to deal with Hurricane Beryl in South Texas beginning Sunday.

Happy July 4th, Y’all! The forecast for your afternoon and evening festivities looks hot but mostly dry if you’re across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. We may see a few popup storms this afternoon in East and Southeast Texas, but those should dissipate by 8 PM. The western third of Texas, into Northwest Texas, and Texoma may have to deal with spotty thunderstorms this evening. Remember, if thunder roars – go indoors!

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This evening, a cool front will move south across West Texas and southern Oklahoma. That front will continue moving south on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northern half of Texas. Some storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Expect much of the same across most of Texas off and on over the next five days.

Why the change in weather?

You can thank the upper-level heat dome (high pressure) shifting to the West Coast for our weather pattern change. Without the sinking air (subsidence) over Texas, all the tropical moisture will be able to bubble up into daily thunderstorm chances. Just pretend we’re Florida, except all the cloud cover will help keep our temperatures down next week.

Hurricane Beryl and it’s impacts on Texas

Hurricane Beryl Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.

Major Hurricane Beryl is quickly moving west/northwest across the Caribbean Sea. As expected, stronger wind shear has taken a toll on the system. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 MPH; continued weakening is expected today. Beryl will still be a hurricane when it arrives in the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. A much-weakened Beryl will move into the Bay of Campeche/southwest Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. From there, depending on how much time the system has over water and how it manages its time over land, it may intensify to category one hurricane status.

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The track forecast remains consistent with a landfall in northern Mexico or southern Texas by Sunday evening or Monday morning. Impacts to the Rio Grande Valley and Lower Texas Coast, perhaps up to the Coastal Bend, may include heavy rain, strong winds (up to 80 MPH gusts), dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge, and embedded tornadoes in rain-bands. Dangerous rip currents and some coastal flooding may also impact the Middle and Upper Texas Gulf Coast.

Wet Weather this Weekend and Next Week for Texas

Active weather over the next five days will contribute to most of Texas having a chance to receive measurable rain. Some will miss out and see nothing; while the heaviest rains from Beryl in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley may result in flooding.

Regardless of Beryl’s exact track, tropical moisture will spread across the southeastern half of Texas early next week, favoring several days of wet weather. We’ll continue closely monitoring Beryl, and all those on the Texas Gulf Coast should also.

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David Reimer

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