Author: David Reimer

2/1/2011 Winter Storm – Discussion #3

[caption id=”attachment_1521″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”Advisories as of 10 AM CST”][/caption] Good morning, As the above graphic shows, the Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include the D/FW Metroplex. This is based off slightly higher confidence in more significant impacts for the Metroplex. Right now, the watch goes along and northwest of Cleburne to Bonham line. This is showed by the light blue outline. This is where the NWS expects conditions will become severe enough to impact travel. Dark blue areas are a Winter Weather Advisory, with the teal signifying a Winter Storm Warning. Here in North Texas, most of the watch will likely be changed over to a Winter Weather Advisory by this afternoon, with a Winter Storm Warning for our NW counties where heavier amounts of sleet and snow are possible. [caption id=”attachment_1524″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”12Z NAM – Output for 6 AM Tuesday”][/caption] The 12Z NAM didn’t present any major changes to our thinking for tomorrow‘s event. Still, I need to caution it likely is not picking up the shallower nature of the air, so the freeze line may indeed be further south and east of what is being shown here. However, according to this, moderate to heavy sleet will be falling from a Weatherford to Gainesville line. Heavy to Very Heavy snow may be in progress back towards Wichita Falls, where several inches of snow are...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm – Discussion #2

Good evening, I hope you all had the opportunity to enjoy this excellent spring-like weather we had this weekend (at least here in North Texas) because that is about to come to a climatic conclusion. Before we dive into the specifics of what is undoubtedly going to be a headache for many forecasters, lets take a look at the national winter weather product map. [caption id=”attachment_1510″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”Winter Weather Products as of 9:30 PM CST”][/caption] As can be seen by all the pretty colors, the map is lit up like a Christmas tree. Winter Storm Watches are in effect from El Paso, TX all the way up to Philadelphia, PA and the New Jersey coast. In between the watches you have a few Winter Storm Warnings in effect from Oklahoma City, up north into Kansas, and eastward to Saint Louis. The dark blue colors you see are Winter Weather Advisories, which extend north to the Canadian border. This is one of the most significant storms to strike the United States in many years, and we’re lucky in North Texas that we’re on the southern edge of this. Parts of Oklahoma could pick up over a foot of snow, and Indianapolis is facing a catastrophic ice storm with ice accumulations over one inch possible. Needless to say, we’re pretty lucky here in North Texas when compared to what we...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm Potential – Discussion #1

Click any image for a larger version Good afternoon, After procrastinating for a few days on writing the first post relating to a possible winter weather event, I finally decided to do it. The main reason I was holding off was because of the model differences and the fact we were still so far out. While we’re still several days out from this potential event, we’re getting close enough where its time that we started to take a look at different scenarios and see what we may end with. Bear with me here as this will likely be part discussion, part rambling. Lets first take a look at what air mass is going to cause all this mischief, and make Texas feel like Nebraska later this week. This morning, a very cold arctic air mass was just entering the northern plain states from North Dakota over to Minnesota. There temperatures are hovering around zero this morning. Just north of the border, temperatures quickly fall off to negative twenty to thirty Fahrenheit. By Monday, a very strong high pressure will set up over the northern plains, likely over 1040 MB. This will shunt the cold air south, by means of a strong cold front. By Tuesday Morning this cold front will have passed through all of Oklahoma and will be pushing through the northern sections of Texas. Temperatures ahead of...

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Freezing Rain Issues Tomorrow?

I say again, this is supposed to be a La Nina. Those are normally drier and warmer then average with less winter events. This season has turned out to be an anomaly for sure. Anyway we’re not here to discuss climatology, but to take a look at the potential for a minor winter weather event tomorrow across northern sections of North Texas. [caption id=”attachment_1364″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”0Z NAM – 24 Hr. Accumulated Precip”][/caption] [caption id=”attachment_1363″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”0Z GFS – 24 Hr. Accumulated Precip”][/caption] This seems to becoming a regular occurrence for this winter, models constantly keep temperatures well above freezing and all the precipitation in a non-frozen variety, only to cool off just before the event and we end up having winter weather issues across the area. This event is no different and the colder trend started on the 12Z runs earlier today. The 0Z runs tonight have continued that trend, and surprisingly have come in with a wetter solution for the area. Now when I say wetter, I use that only in the sense that we may get five hundredths of an inch of precipitation compared to the trace to one hundredth of an inch showed on earlier runs. Normally, for non-frozen rainfall and snowfall, that would have little impact as both are very minute amounts. For Freezing Rain, however, that is a pretty substantial difference when...

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Watching and Waiting

Good Evening, Thanks for those that have stayed up late with me as we eagerly await what could be one of those once in a few year major snow events for North Texas. Let me go ahead and say this is still a low confidence forecast, but confidence in snow at some point in most areas is high. It’s just when will the change over occur. NOW [caption id=”attachment_1330″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”Radar at 11:16 PM“][/caption] As of 11:20 PM, a large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms was located along and west of a line from Mineral Wells, to Granbury, to Waco. This mass is moving northeast at a quickened pace of 40 MPH and should be into parts of the Metroplex by 1  AM to 6 PM) This is the time period where we face the most questions. [caption id=”attachment_1332″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”NAM at 9 AM Sunday”][/caption] For the 12Z runs, the NAM was the warmer model and kept most of the precipitation in liquid form. The GFS had the snow line through the metroplex and was the colder model. For the 0Z suite, the models flip flopped. The 0Z NAM produces a very heavy snowfall event across the metroplex, with snow amounts over ten inches in some locations. The GFS has minimal snow amounts and keep the snow restricted to northeast Texas. Although this keeps the forecast...

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