Author: David Reimer

Tornado Watch for Big Country until 8 PM

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for the Texas Big Country. This includes San Angelo, Abilene, and Stephenville. This watch is in effect through 8PM. The strongest storms this afternoon may produce baseball size hail, 70 MPH wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes.   Tornado Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of parts of the Texas Big Country * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY…Scattered intense thunderstorm development continues near and to the west through north of San Angelo. Further intensification is likely through the remainder of the afternoon, with supercells possible capable of producing large hail and perhaps a couple of...

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Complicated Storm Forecast Today; but Severe Weather Possible

A very complex forecast is in store for today. At the time of this blog writing we have an area of showers and thunderstorms slowly progressing northeast across western North Texas. Renewed convective development – some severe – is underway along Interstate 20 in the Big Country. The eastern edge of this thunderstorm cluster is slowly progressing east, right behind an outflow boundary. This will be critical in dictating the potential for severe weather this afternoon. Locations behind this boundary are generally more stable with southwest winds. However, as the new storms in the Big Country show, some destabilization is occuring right behind this rain cluster. Today’s severe weather setup is overall pretty messy – which means considerable forecast adjustments are likely throughout the day. This is not a clear cut severe weather day as that rain cluster will likely cause localized reductions in the risk areas, while we could see a localized enhancement where-ever any outflow boundaries set up this afternoon. With that said – here is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. We have an “enhanced” level 3 risk across portions of the Big Country extending eastward into North Texas. This does include Abilene, D/FW, Wichita Falls, east to Paris. The “standard” level 2 risk includes Northwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Hill Country, and the remainder of North Texas. The strongest storms may...

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Tornado Watch for Big Country & North Texas till 10PM

Tornado Watch now in effect through 10 PM for portions of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and North Texas. This watch includes San Angelo, Abilene, Brownwood, Mineral Wells, Granbury, D/FW, Waco, and Hillsboro. The strongest storms through the early evening hours may produce giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, and a couple of tornadoes. The highest tornado risk will be with any discrete, right-moving supercell. Storms will likely impact the I-35 corridor (including D/FW) from 4 to 7 PM. Tornado Watch Number 236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of portions of northern and central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the next hour or so across portions of northern and central Texas, expanding in coverage as they spread eastward/northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Along with risk for a couple of tornadoes, very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely with the strongest storms/bands of storms. The tornado watch area...

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Quick Early Afternoon Notes – Upgraded Severe Weather Probabilities

A couple quick notes as we head into the mid-afternoon hours. We’re out chasing so this may be our last update for the duration of the event. A tornado watch will be issued soon for the Big Country and western North Texas. This watch may approach I-35. Storms are firing in the Big Country. Some of these storms will be severe with a risk of giant hail larger than the size of a baseball. The highest tornado risk will be in Oklahoma and Kansas, but a few tornadoes are not out of the question. Damaging straight-line winds over 70 MPH are also possible with any organized line segments. The “enhanced” level 3 risk now includes all of the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and the western half of North Texas including the D/FW Metroplex. Expect the best chance of storms to be 2 PM through about 10-11 PM (western areas first, spreading east). The highest storm threat for I-35 (including D/FW) will be 4 to 7 PM. For the full forecast for today and tomorrow please see our detailed blog posted...

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Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon & on Friday

A busy upcoming weather period is expected with a dual threat of severe weather and heavy rain. We have a “standard” level 2 risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening across a large area of real estate. This level 2 risk includes the far eastern Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Southwest Texas, Hill Country, and western sections of Central Texas. We do note that probabilities ramp up quite quickly on the Oklahoma side of the state line with a level 5 ‘high’ risk of severe weather. A major outbreak of tornadoes is expected in that region this afternoon. The severe weather window in Texas will open up rather early today, perhaps by 1-2 PM in the Big Country and western North Texas. We should start to see things calming down by the mid-evening hours, say by around 10 PM. The strongest storms in Texas may produce hail up to the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a couple of tornadoes. The highest threat for tornadoes looks to be in Oklahoma and Kansas today where low-level wind shear will be stronger. High resolution weather models are indicating the first thunderstorm development may occur by 1-3 PM in the Big Country to western North Texas – just east of a dryline. You can thank a weak cap and rather strong...

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