Author: David Reimer

Mid-Afternoon Check on Tonight’s Increasing Storm Chances

A late season cool front will bring a glorious bout of cooler and drier airmass into at least the northern half of Texas for the weekend. At the time of this writing, the cool front was located just north of Lubbock to near Vernon extending east into Central Oklahoma. Temperatures in the Texas Panhandle are only in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Compare those beautiful temperatures to the 90s/100s with heat index values over 110 south of the cold front all the way to the Gulf Coast. Isolated storms are firing up ahead of the...

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Nasty Hot Today; Cool Front & Storms Arrive Tonight

The main story for today will be the heat before a cool front arrives with a chance of storms tonight. High temperatures today will only top out in the 70s across the Texas Panhandle, which is pretty cool for summer. South of the Panhandle, I’m afraid folks aren’t going to be as lucky. Temperatures will easily top out above 100 degrees across the Borderland, Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, Southwest Texas, South Texas, and Deep South Texas. Temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees are expected in North Texas, Central Texas, and South-Central Texas. Temperatures this afternoon in the 90s are expected across East Texas and Southeast Texas, but with higher humidity values heat index values will easily top out in the 100-110 degree range. A cool front will move south out of Oklahoma this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the proximity of that front from the Permian basin east through the Big Country, North Texas, into Northeast Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected tonight, especially across North Texas and Northeast Texas. A general one to two inches of rain will be possible, some will see less, some may see localized amounts higher. Storm chances look to continue into at least the first half of Saturday across North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. A level 2 ‘standard’ risk of severe weather is...

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Below-Average Rains Bring Return of Localized Drought Conditions

The last 30 days have featured below-average precipitation across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Hill Country, into South-Central Texas. A few spots did receive above-average rain amounts over the last month, including around the Borderland, Alpine, parts of D/FW, the Middle Coastal Bend, and far Southeast Texas. Those areas that did receive heavy rains over the last month mostly did so due to slow-moving summer thunderstorms. Their impacts were limited due to their slow movement, with locations only a few miles away hardly receiving a drop. A few thunderstorm complexes did progress eastward in the early part of June, but those did not alleviate dry weather concerns.  The eastern Texas Panhandle, far Northwest Texas, and Southwestern Oklahoma only received 2 to 15 percent of their normal rainfall. Keep in mind this graphic takes into account rains over the last 30 days, a good indicator on how surface fuels may be reacting. Per the US Drought Monitor, we’ve seen moderate drought conditions have expanded over the last week in the southeastern Texas Panhandle, far Northwest Texas, into portions of West Texas. Abnormally dry conditions now encompass just under a quarter of Texas’s real estate. Most lakes remain in fairly good shape. The concern for the next few weeks, assuming the drought isn’t eliminated by future rainfall, will be the increased risk of wildfires. Summer does not...

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Cindy Weakening but Dangerous Rip Currents Continue along the Coast

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall early this morning near the Texas and Lousiana state lines. It has since moved north and weakened into a tropical depression. As expected there really isn’t much rain west of the circulation center with the heaviest activity located several hundred miles east of Mississippi and Alabama. Scattered showers will remain possible through the afternoon across East Texas. Cindy will turn northeast this evening and will be located near Memphis by Friday morning. Rain chances will decrease this evening across East and Northeast Texas and should be mainly out of the picture by Friday morning. However; scattered storms will return to the forecast by Saturday across a majority of Texas as a weak cool front moves south. This weekend’s activity will not be associated with a tropical cyclone. An additional one to three inches of rain may fall in parts of East Texas through the evening, but that is probably going to be a stretch. Localized flooding can’t be ruled out, but I think that threat has become fairly low as the heaviest activity is located well east of Cindy’s center. Rough surf and dangerous swimming conditions will continue into Friday across a majority of the Gulf Coast. The risk of rip currents is high! Try and keep your children and less-experienced swimmers in knee-high water or less to reduce the risk of any issues....

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10PM NHC Update on Tropical Storm Cindy

Tropical Storm Cindy is 95 miles south/southeast of Port Arthur and is moving north/northwest at 7 MPH. Cindy is expected to make landfall near the Texas/Lousiana border early Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 MPH in heavier thunderstorms on the northern side of the circulation. Little change in strength is expected until the system makes landfall – after which time weakening will commence. The primary concern with Cindy will be very heavy rainfall along and east of the track through Thursday night. Cindy will begin turning more to the north Thursday morning and eventually turn northeast exiting far east Texas by Thursday Night. Dangerous flash flooding is possible overnight in far Southeast Texas, including the Beaumont area. Strong winds are also expected in this area as Cindy approaches and makes landfall early Thursday. The threat for heavy rains will increase on Thursday across far East Texas. Most activity should be exiting Texas by late Thursday night. Remember, there will be a sharp cut-off in the rain west of the circulation center. That means there may not be much distance between no rain and flooding rains. Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 …HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST… …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE…   SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…28.6N...

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