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Severe thunderstorm chances return to Texas on Friday

Today started quite chilly for April standards across most of Texas. We’re up to eight straight days of below-average temperatures in D/FW – something that hasn’t happened in April since 2009. Thanks to Tom Bradshaw at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth for that fun fact. Cool-weather fans should enjoy this evening because spring weather returns in full force on Friday. Severe thunderstorm chances return on Friday, and we’re already highlighting a severe weather threat next Tuesday. We definitely need the rain, but we could do without damaging hail or other severe weather mischiefs. That’s a hard ask in late April or early May.

Friday’s Severe Weather Risk

Severe weather outlook for Friday

Severe weather outlook for Friday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a severe weather risk for Friday and Friday Night. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible – which will make specific timing and hazard details more complicated. Refinements to the outlook (both in spatial details and specific risk levels) are expected as we get closer to Friday. Risk levels are based on the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location.

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be underway Friday morning across portions of North Texas southeastward into Southeast Texas. Most of the morning activity should not be severe, but the chances for hail could increase after 9 AM through noon with more intense storms in North Texas, Central Texas, and Southeast Texas.

Our ‘cap’ or ‘lid’ on the atmosphere may not be all that strong on Friday. Assuming our assumption of a weak cap is correct, thunderstorm activity could be increasing in both coverage and intensity around noon across North Texas and Central Texas (Red River south to Interstate 10). Large hail is the primary threat with more intense storms Friday morning through about lunchtime. Storms will tend to move to the northeast. As we get into the early afternoon hours on Friday, we may see an uptick in the damaging wind and at least a low tornado threat.

More discrete, supercelluar storms Friday afternoon may produce very large hail up to the size of tennis balls. Large hail looks to be the most common hazard on Friday. However, damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes are also threats. A corridor of comparatively higher tornado potential may develop in East Texas Friday afternoon, but that’ll be dependent on smaller-scale features (which we can’t pin down yet).

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday evening. A cold front moving south Friday night could also have a line of showers/storms – with some storms producing strong winds.

Beautiful Weekend before storms return Tuesday

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

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The good news? Saturday and Sunday both should feature decent weather without precipitation chances. Overnight lows will be comfortable with a drier air mass, and daytime highs should range from the 60s up to the 90s. We’ll start to see moisture levels increase on Monday before our next chance of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Even at this range, we already have a severe weather risk highlighted – not abnormal as we approach the climatological peak of our spring severe weather season.

David Reimer

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