A rather miserable stretch of weather is upon us as our next cold front begins its approach. Increasing moisture advecting north from the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in plenty of clouds and mist today. Low clouds and drizzle will continue in earnest tonight and into Wednesday morning. It’ll be pure Instrument Flight Rules for sure with low ceilings and decreased visibility. At least the ongoing weather scenario is more typical of what we would expect in November.
Chance of rain Wednesday through Friday morning
Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, Wednesday Night, and Thursday as the cold front progresses south through Texas. The front itself won’t be in much of a hurry. Rains will be most widespread within one hundred miles of the cold front.
Stronger storms may be capable of producing small hail. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time due to the atmosphere being only marginally unstable. This will be more of a miserable cold rain versus an ‘I’m going to drop baseball size hail on your roof’ system.
Precipitation chances will be limited to the southern half of Texas by Thursday evening. They’ll mostly conclude by Friday for most of Texas as a cooler, dry airmass filter in from the north.
Winter weather potential Wednesday Night into Thursday morning
Falling temperatures may coincide with continued precipitation Thursday morning in the Texas Panhandle. Specifically, rain may mix with or change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow northwest of a Hereford to Amarillo to Pampa to Lipscomb line. Similar to last week some areas may receive a light glazing of ice on elevated objects. Any ice accumulations would probably create hazardous conditions on bridges. Minor snow accumulations are possible in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle – Dalhart to Boise City to Texline. Remember that winter weather forecasting in Texas is a big pain in the behind and that Mother Nature tends to throw a few surprises. We’ll be able to nail down any specific accumulation potential tomorrow.
Some will a little rain. Some will get a gully-washer
Widespread rains should impact nearly all of Texas over the next three days. That does not mean everyone is going to get a bunch of rain. Rainfall amounts will generally range from one-tenth of an inch up to one-half of an inch. An axis of heavier rain could drop up to three inches of rain from between Lubbock and Midland northeast toward Wichita Falls, Texoma, up into southern and eastern Oklahoma. Localized flooding may occur in that zone Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain totals may also approach one inch in portions of the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas.
Below-average temperatures are anticipated behind the cold front on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A rapid warm-up will occur on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures quickly getting back up to average. A stronger cold front, some might call an ‘arctic cold front’, looks to arrive on Monday or Tuesday of next week. That front could pack one heck of a punch, but the extent of the cold air intrusion into Texas is still up in the air. The same can be said regarding any precipitation – and precipitation types early next week. Some folks are going to be mighty cold next week in the United States though.