Spotty thunderstorms will continue this morning in Texoma and Northeast Texas. All that activity will quickly move off to the northeast by the early afternoon hours. Some small hail could briefly occur if we get a stronger storm to pulse up. Otherwise, it’ll continue to be rather nasty outside with fog and mist. We’ve got our interactive weather radar here on our website and in our free mobile app.
(Some criticized me last night on Facebook for saying the weather was ‘disgusting.’ Please note that I was/am referring to the fog and mist. I’m not calling rain disgusting. Farmers and those with agricultural interests may now put their pitchforks/flamethrowers away.)
Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in West Texas and the Permian Basin
It now appears plausible that we may have a small window for more organized storms late this afternoon and into the early evening hours across the Permian Basin and West Texas. We’re not talking about a widespread or particularly long-lived threat. However, there is a signal that a few severe storms may occur.
We noted in previous posts that the atmosphere was expected to remain too stable to support severe storms. Short-term high-resolution weather model data indicates the atmosphere may be able to become just unstable enough to produce stronger thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a level one risk of severe weather for the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, West Texas, east into the Big Country. Timing looks to be from about 4 PM on the New Mexico border up to around 9 PM.
A supercelluar storm mode may occur with a few isolated storms. Those supercells could produce large hail and perhaps some 55+ MPH wind gusts.
There is a low threat of a tornado in the northern Permian Basin where we see just enough instability combine with stronger low-level wind shear. Most folks will not be impacted by those supercelluar storms this afternoon.
Rain and thunderstorms increase in coverage tonight
By the early evening, a more massive complex of showers and thunderstorms will move east. Some of those storms could be capable of producing heavy rainfall and small hail. I can’t rule out an isolated storm with quarter size hail, but the highest relative threat for larger hail will be with the discrete activity during the afternoon hours.
By the mid-evening hours, we should have a relatively large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from near Oklahoma City southwest to Vernon, Big Spring, all the way down toward Alpine. All of that will continue moving east overnight while weakening. A few stronger storms may produce small hail, but heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning should be the two most common occurrences.
Still a chance for a wee bit of wintry mischief in the Panhandle tomorrow morning
Some winter precipitation may occur in the Texas Panhandle on Thursday morning. Minor accumulations cannot be ruled out with some impacts on bridges. Confidence in winter weather isn’t overly high as of this writing. I’m sure Mother Nature will throw us a curveball later today and somehow turn this into some nasty winter weather event, but that’s not the expectation currently.
Cold front and rain chances move south through Friday.
A cold front will continue to move south on Thursday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected near and behind the front. Gusty north winds with temperatures in the 30s and 40s are likely behind the front. It will not be the most delightful day to be outdoors.
Rain chances will continue across the southern half of Texas on Thursday night and into the morning hours on Friday. We should be drying out as a state by early Friday afternoon. It’ll still be somewhat crisp, with temperatures below average for early November.
The cold snap will be short-lived. A quick rebound in the temperature department will occur on Saturday as southerly winds bring a much warmer airmass northward. That’ll continue into Sunday and parts of Monday.
Uh, who invited Jack Frost next week?
We’ve got one heck of a cold front (some might say an arctic front) blasting in from the north on Monday night into Tuesday. We’ll deal with that probable mess after we get past this first front. Expect cold weather and another round of precipitation with the front early next week