A surface cool front is progressing south across the Permian Basin, Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas this afternoon. That front will be responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms later tonight and into Wednesday. Those precipitation chances will move south in conjunction with the cool front.
A few thunderstorms may severe with a threat of large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in Northeast Texas this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a level one risk of severe weather to address tonight’s thunderstorm chances. That marginal risk includes portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas.
Those near or within the risk zone have a five percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of their location. Level one is the lowest risk on a five-level system. It indicates any severe weather threat is expected to remain isolated.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly increase in coverage this evening in the proximity of the cool front across Northeast Texas. With time those thunderstorms will ‘unzip’ southwest along the cool front. It appears probable that a nearly solid line of showers and storms will exist along the cool front by midnight or not long thereafter.
A few of those storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, most storms will mainly be the typical loud boomers with some heavier rains and gusty winds.
Storms will progress south/southeast overnight along with the cool front. By sunrise that activity will be approaching the Southeast Texas coast and also moving into South Texas.
Rain chances will be highest along and behind of the cool front tonight and into the morning hours Wednesday. As the front progresses farther south we’ll see a drier airmass filter in behind it. Most folks north of Interstate 10 will be drying out by lunch-time tomorrow.
Only isolated to scattered showers are anticipated by tomorrow night from the Trans-Pecos southeast into the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley.
Widespread rains tonight will bring generally light rain totals to the southeastern half of Texas. On a regional scale, we’re expecting rainfall totals to range from a one-quarter inch up to three-quarters of an inch. Some folks will likely see rain totals over one inch.
Localized heavier rains could produce rainfall amounts over two inches in a short period of time. Only isolated flooding is expected tonight if we have any issues at all in the flash flooding department.
Temperatures tomorrow will be much more comfortable as northerly winds bring in a drier and cooler airmass. It’ll be cool behind the front tonight and for most of the state tomorrow night. Not as cool as last week’s legitimate cold front, but still nicer than this morning.
Our cooldown will be brief as southerly winds quickly restablish themselves tomorrow night and into Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoint values will climb back up from Thursday onward into the weekend. Our next cool front looks to arrive Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible along with at least a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.