Our next weather maker will arrive on Sunday into Sunday Night. A cool front will move south into Texas as a potent upper-level storm system passes over the Midwest. While we in Texas will be on the tail-end of this system we will still have to deal with a duo of weather hazards. We’ll have to be watchful of the threat of severe thunderstorms along/ahead of the cool front and an elevated to critical wildfire threat behind the front. We’re still four days out so details are a bit blurry and confidence in an exact forecast scenario is lower than average.
The current extended-range outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a risk of severe weather for Sunday evening and Sunday night across North Texas and Northeast Texas. Uncertainties at this stage include the strength of the cap and by association the timing of thunderstorm development along the cool front.
While the severe weather outlook highlights the two aforementioned regions we note that additional storms will probably ‘unzip’ along the front farther southwest along the front. Rain chances will be scattered to numerous as the front moves southeast Sunday night into Monday across the southeastern half of Texas.
Current weather model data, which will probably change somewhat over the next few days, indicates the strongest storms may produce quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts. As we get closer we’ll be able to better refine both the timing and overall severity of each severe weather hazard.
There will not be a particularly cold airmass accompanying Sunday night’s front. However, a dry continental airmass will quickly filter in behind the front. Gusty northwest winds along with that dry airmass will result in an elevated to critical fire weather threat Sunday and Sunday night behind the cool front. We note that the higher fire weather threat could continue well into the night and into Monday morning. Surface fuels going dormant due to the early freeze a few weeks back along with the ongoing drought both will result in higher ignition probabilities for grass fires.
Temperatures will be quite a bit above average for the remainder of this week. In fact, it’ll be annoyingly warm for the Fort Worth Alliance Air Show this weekend. Compressional heating ahead of the front on Sunday will result in high temperatures topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Temperatures will get knocked back down toward seasonal averages behind the front as a much drier airmass filter in. Temperatures themselves will start climbing back up the ‘temperature rollercoaster’ by Tuesday.