Our upper-level high pressure, lovingly referred to as the heat dome, has taken a little vacation to the Southeastern United States. Meanwhile, a trough is moving onshore in the Northwestern United States. We here in Texas are sort of the lonely child and under the influence of a weak southerly/southwesterly flow aloft. Thanks to the upper-level high being off to our east we’ve had a few rounds of monsoonal thunderstorms across the western third of Texas and from our daily afternoon sea-breeze.
Rain chances over the next couple of days will be driven by two separate regimes. The first regime is the typical summer monsoon. That has already brought some much-needed rainfall to portions of the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, and West Texas over the last several days. Those scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue today, tonight, and into Wednesday. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected, but a few storms may get a bit riled up with gusty winds and small hail. Very isolated and brief flooding can’t be ruled out, but I’m sure someone’s bar-ditch needs a good cleaning anyway.
The second regime that will bring scattered thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the workweek comes in the form of our sea-breeze. Thanks to the ‘heat dome’ shifting east we’re now able to get that Seabreeze back inland each morning and afternoon. As is typical that boundary is able to spark off ‘popup thunderstorms’ as it propagates inland. Just how far inland it makes it each day is determined by a few factors, but it’ll make decent progress daily this week. Storms that fire up could go up in a hurry, produce quite a bit of lightning and small hail, before coming back down with gusty winds. They’ll be hit or miss – with most folks being missed.
Precipitation chances will increase Thursday night into Friday morning across the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Texoma as a cold front moves slowly south. That front will spark off numerous thunderstorms late Thursday night that should bring rain to the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. If those storms are able to organize into a southward-propagating cluster (or a mesoscale convective system for the more weather-geeky folks) it could make it south of the Red River on Friday into Northwest Texas and North Texas. This isn’t a guarantee, but it would bring cooler temperatures and some rain for Friday. We’ll keep an eye on data and hopefully, we can bump up those rain chances as we get a bit closer. The front itself won’t make too much progress south and will stall out Friday before dissipating.
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Temperatures the next several days will generally be ‘cooler’ than what we’ve seen the last several weeks. Outside of any lucky folks getting rained on it’ll still be toasty. However, we note the lack of triple-digit heat – which is also a nice change. Our heat dome will build back west into Texas as we move into the weekend and early next week. That’ll result in rain chances generally getting shut back down along with the upper 90s making a return. For those wondering – the American long-range weather model did show a nice little cool front moving into the southern United States in about 13 days. However, that is so far out in ‘model voodoo’ land that it’s just fun to look at – the quality of any model predictions at that range are laughable. Still, at least a cool front is showing up in the ‘laughable’ range. Hopefully, we’ll get a taste of fall by the end of September.