This truly is the severe weather season that won’t end. I guess it beats the prospect of a multi-year drought, but this humidity got old really fast. Anyway, enough self-whining. Let’s talk about the chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Tomorrow’s chance of thunderstorms will generally be concentrated on the eastern Texas Panhandle, with isolated thunderstorms farther south/southwest along the dryline into West Texas. It is entirely possible most of tomorrow’s severe weather remains in Kansas and Oklahoma.
If we do have storms fire up east of the dryline in the Texas Panhandle or West Texas they will likely be severe. Discrete/semi-discrete storms would be supercelluar with a threat of very large to giant hail (baseball to softball size). Localized damaging winds over 65 MPH and even a tornado could also occur. If we had a squall line or thunderstorm cluster impact the Red River tomorrow night the threat of damaging straight-line winds would exist. Isolated flash flooding would be a threat with both storm modes given slow storm motions.
Tomorrow will be a case where a majority don’t see a drop of rain, but those with outdoor plans in the eastern Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, and West Texas should keep an eye out. Any storm would produce extremely frequent cloud to ground lightning – which has a tendency to cause problems for those outdoors. Storms would move to the east/northeast – with more intense storms moving slowly to the east, or perhaps even southeast. Those in the Panhandle and West Texas should check back tomorrow for the latest storm forecast.
Sunday has the potential to be rather active in the weather department across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and that could extend farther south as well. If we have a thunderstorm complex impact the Red River tomorrow night or Sunday morning that could further complicate the forecast thereafter. That whole tidbit is meant to convey a general uncertainty on Sunday’s forecast – and that the forecast itself will likely change.
That said – we generally do expect an active thunderstorm day and night across several regions of Texas. Once confidence increases in a particular forecast solution we could see some increased severe weather probabilities (an upgrade to level 3) in future outlook updates. We do note that a moderate risk of flash flooding is already in place for Sunday Night across Texoma and North Texas. We’ll likely have to deal with flash flooding issues as slow-moving thunderstorms (including some storms that will likely be severe) impact those regions.
We’ll provide a far more detailed forecast tomorrow once we have a better idea of how this weekend will evolve. Mainly I wanted to share the threat of storms on Saturday and Sunday for those with outdoor plans. Keep an eye on the forecast and your favorite weather app.