Severe thunderstorms are underway from near Sweetwater in the Big Country north/northeast toward Wichita Falls in Northwest Texas. Those storms extend north of the Red River. A severe thunderstorm watch is in place until 10 PM for those aforementioned areas – and it extends east into North Texas. I do anticipate an additional watch farther east sometime this evening.
Storms in Northwest Texas have grown upscale into line segments, but new storms firing from east of Seymour to Throckmorton to Sweetwater are maintaining discrete supercelluar characteristics for now. Those supercells have the highest chance of producing very large hail this afternoon. Some hail could approach the size of baseballs.
Once storms grow upscale into an organized squall line we’ll see the threat of damaging straight-line winds increase. Some of those wind gusts could exceed 70 MPH. Not all storms are going to be severe, and not all storms are going to produce damaging winds.
We will also have to watch for an increased threat of flash flooding this evening and overnight in North Texas and in Northeast Texas. Once that line does form in a few hours we should see storms start making more progress to the east/southeast versus the current northeast/east motion.
Storms this evening could make it into East Texas and perhaps Southeast Texas overnight and into the morning hours on Monday. However, those storms should be slowly weakening, so the threat of severe weather will be lower in East Texas and points south. Not zero, but the threat for more widespread severe weather will be lower.
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) has storms moving into the D/FW Metroplex northward to Sherman between 8 PM and 10 PM. Some storms will probably be severe with the threat of damaging winds, hail, and flooding. Those same storms will also impact Interstate 20 and Interstate 30 across Northeast Texas tonight. Those will move south/southeast into East Texas overnight.
While not explicitly in the forecast, the HRRR seems to be picking up on another piece of energy moving over North Texas around 4-5AM Monday. IF the atmosphere still has some energy left over we may see additional storms fire up in time for the morning commute. Some of those storms could produce hail, localized damaging winds, and exacerbate any flooding issues. Those storms would move southeast.
You can keep tabs on ongoing storms using our free HD interactive weather radar here and in our free mobile app. We’ll have more rapid-fire updates on our social media channels through the evening.