A significant severe weather outbreak is becoming more likely tomorrow across the Permian Basin, West Texas, Texas Panhandle, and in Northwest Texas. There are still some uncertainties, but even with those, we are still anticipating a significant severe weather threat. That will include multiple rounds of storms with the first beginning Monday morning with very large hail possible. Round two and round three tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening could produce all modes of severe weather. Numerous tornadoes, giant hail up to the size of softballs, and widespread damaging straight-line winds (some hurricane-force) are all threats.

Some of the tornadoes may be in the EF2-EF5 range and continue for long periods of time in the eastern half of the Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, into the western half of Oklahoma. Flash flooding will be a major concern as well. Severe thunderstorms are also expected farther south into the Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, and Western North Texas tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. Assuming a squall line is the primary mode at that point we’ll have to deal with a widespread damaging wind threat, hail, flooding, and brief tornadoes.

I’ll keep my dialog short and let the images speak for themselves. Again, several rounds of storms are possible tomorrow across West Texas and in the Texas Panhandle. Storms may be ongoing for the morning rush-hour with a threat of very large hail. Those storms may become surface-based by lunchtime with an increasing threat of tornadoes. A brief lull may ensure by the late morning and early afternoon. However, that lull will be short-lived as intense supercell thunderstorms develop by the mid-afternoon hours

. The most intense of those supercells will likely be tornadic and capable of producing significant severe weather. If we end up having more of a mixed-convective mode the threat for stronger/longer-lived tornadoes would be a bit lower, but we would still be dealing with a significant severe wind/hail and flood threat.

Potential rain totals over the next several days. Given saturated soils most of this will run-off and cause new rises in streams, creeks, rivers, and lakes.

Storms will try and make their way east Monday night toward Teomxa, the Big Country, and North Texas. They won’t be as intense as earlier in the day. Hopefully, they’ll be in a linear mode – which would keep the threat of tornadoes lower (not zero). However, very strong wind fields would support a significant damaging wind threat. Those storms would also produce very heavy rainfall which would likely result in some new flash flooding. I again emphasize that while we’re focusing on the severe weather threat, a major flood threat is also expected across the eastern Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, into Texoma.  These aspects of the forecast will be refined tomorrow as we get a better grasp on how the day itself will play out.

You can check your local forecast over on the National Weather Service’s website here. We’ve got a free HD interactive weather radar here or in our free mobile app (link at the top of this page). Most (if not all) of the team will be chasing tomorrow.