We’re beginning to transition to an early summer pattern across the southern United States. For us in Texas, that means the southern half of Texas starts to heat up like an egg on the pavement. Storm chances generally shift farther north into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. That’ll be quite evident over the coming days as we see the ‘ring of fire’ help fire up storms daily east of the dryline. Each day’s specific severe weather threats and coverage will depend on other factors. Those factors include upper-level lift, cap strength, low-level wind profiles, and all that fun nerdy stuff. Anyway, we’re going to take it one day at a time. Texas is a big state and most folks won’t be dealing with storms.

A level three risk of severe weather is in place for Thursday across the eastern half of the Texas Panhandle southward into West Texas. That enhanced risk is where confidence is highest in multiple severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. A level two risk of severe weather encompasses more of West Texas, portions of the Permian Basin, and Northwest Texas off the caprock. Finally, a level one risk of severe weather runs all the way south toward the western Concho Valley, Trans-Pecos, and the western edge of the Edwards Plateau. The higher risk levels indicate a higher possibility of severe weather.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initiate after 2-4PM east of a dryline tomorrow afternoon from the Texas Panhandle south toward the Permian Basin. Those storms would move off to the northeast. Discrete storms will likely be supercelluar with all modes of severe weather possible. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs, localized wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a few tornadoes are likely. The tornado threat would be highest across the Texas Panhandle where low-level wind shear will be strongest. How high the tornado threat becomes will depend on storm mode.

More numerous storms are expected to develop tomorrow evening and tomorrow night east of the dryline. Those storms could also be severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated flooding. Some tornado threat may exist, but the storm mode being more linear would help keep that threat lower. Those storms would also generally move off to the northeast. With a more summer-like pattern developing it’ll be more difficult for those storms to move east/southeast, so this threat should stay relatively confined to western portions of Texas.

We’ll have more details in a post tomorrow morning. For now, I’ve got to get going as it’s time to chase storms today in Oklahoma.