A tornado watch is now in effect for much of North Texas and Texoma. This watch goes until 11 PM tonight. An additional watch will likely be needed for areas farther west and southwest later on. Thunderstorms have begun developing from Ballinger to Strawn to Mineral Wells. The cap is weak today, so we could see the number of storms increase over the next several hours – not only in the proximity of the dryline but near outflow boundaries left over from yesterday’s storms. Most storms are going to be moving north/northeast at 40 to 50 MPH.

Very large hail up to the size of baseballs and localized damaging wind gusts are probable with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. If storms congeal into a squall line we’d see a higher risk of damaging straight-line winds. Tornadoes are not out of the question, with the highest threat of a tornado being in Texoma (near the Red River) north into Oklahoma. Localized flooding is also expected this afternoon and evening. With the weak cap and abudent moisture most convective-allowing models aren’t doing too well with storm coverage/timing. I’m mobile and chasing today, so this will likely be my last blog update. Stay tuned to local media and the National Weather Service for the latest weather warnings. Your preferred radar app is also a good source to have handy today.