Not much change from the overnight forecast with the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center. Several rounds of atmospheric energy (shortwaves) will impact the state today with an Enhanced Risk (Level 3) remaining in place for portions of northeast Texas down into central Texas for later this afternoon. This morning, a line of sub-severe storms, west of the DFW metro, continues to track to the north/northeast towards southern Oklahoma. As they continue to move north/northeast, they will begin to encounter atmospheric conditions unfavorable for further intensification, so these will likely remain sub-severe with mainly a gusty wind, lightning and heavy downpour threat.
Additional development is underway south of the DFW metroplex. While the short range models continue to struggle with both current and future storm development this morning, it’s likely that we’ll see these storms continue to strengthen as the capping inversion currently in place across the region begins to erode. This capping inversion, or layer of stable air above the surface, is what’s keeping a lid on stronger storm development at this time for areas east of the current line of storms. However, the erosion of the cap is already underway, and based on the latest mesoscale outlooks, will probably be completely eroded across most of central and north central Texas by around noon which will make the environment favorable for additional development. Where storms will develop later this morning and into the early afternoon remains tricky. It’s likely that we’ll see rain cooled air from the current line of storms west of DFW generate an outflow boundary which could become the focus point for later storm development. Anytime the atmosphere is dependent on boundaries such as that to trigger development, predicting the exact point of initiation becomes a bit challenging. Currently, that outflow boundary is expected to be stretched from about Athens down to around Waco by early afternoon…hence the current forecast focus point for development of strong to severe storms in the Enhanced Risk area south, southeast and east of DFW. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with storms that develop in and near the Enhanced Risk area this afternoon and evening. The tornado risk is low, but is non-zero with sufficient low-level wind shear expected to be in place later on. If you reside in or near the Enhanced Risk outlook area, pay close attention to the weather this afternoon and have a way to receive weather warnings. Most folks should be fine for activities this morning…so get those errands and outdoor chores done now…but you should begin to see storms really ramp up south of DFW across central Texas by around 1pm or so with storm coverage continuing to spread northeast through the afternoon hours.
Current simulated radar through Sunday afternoon