There have been a few minor changes to the forecast since Jenny’s detailed post this morning. The first of which is an enhancement of the severe weather probabilities across Northeast Texas. A level 3 risk of severe weather has been issued from Cooper and Mineloa east Jefferson to Texarkana. Essentially, a good chunk of Northeast Texas. This upgrade was issued given increased confidence in hail-producing thunderstorms tonight. We have the standard level 2 risk of severe weather across the eastern half of North Texas and in parts of East Texas. That does include McKinney, Fort Worth, Cleburne, Hillsboro, Waxahachie, and Dallas. A level 1 marginal risk of severe weather runs farther west to Stephenville and Hamilton.

17Z HRRR: Simulated model radar from 7 PM today through 6 AM Monday. Remember: This is only a simulation and the position/number of storms may not be spot on. Use this for a general guideline, not a ‘it’s going to rain on a specific blade of grass in my yard at exactly X time’.

An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out this afternoon. However, the overall threat of thunderstorms will increase after dinner time as a cool front moves south across the Red River. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase this evening. The varying risk levels this evening are for the number of thunderstorms expected. A severe thunderstorm in the level 2 risk zone will have similar threats as one in the level 3 risk. We just expect more of them in the higher risk zones. Unlike the events earlier this month, tonight’s setup seems to be a good recipe for hailers. Localized damaging winds will be possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

An updated severe weather outlook will be released by the Storm Prediction Center around 3 PM. We’ll update this post if there are any substantial changes (which I don’t believe there will be).