There have been a few minor changes to the forecast since Jenny’s detailed post this morning. The first of which is an enhancement of the severe weather probabilities across Northeast Texas. A level 3 risk of severe weather has been issued from Cooper and Mineloa east Jefferson to Texarkana. Essentially, a good chunk of Northeast Texas. This upgrade was issued given increased confidence in hail-producing thunderstorms tonight. We have the standard level 2 risk of severe weather across the eastern half of North Texas and in parts of East Texas. That does include McKinney, Fort Worth, Cleburne, Hillsboro, Waxahachie, and Dallas. A level 1 marginal risk of severe weather runs farther west to Stephenville and Hamilton.
An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out this afternoon. However, the overall threat of thunderstorms will increase after dinner time as a cool front moves south across the Red River. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase this evening. The varying risk levels this evening are for the number of thunderstorms expected. A severe thunderstorm in the level 2 risk zone will have similar threats as one in the level 3 risk. We just expect more of them in the higher risk zones. Unlike the events earlier this month, tonight’s setup seems to be a good recipe for hailers. Localized damaging winds will be possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
An updated severe weather outlook will be released by the Storm Prediction Center around 3 PM. We’ll update this post if there are any substantial changes (which I don’t believe there will be).