It may feel like winter tonight, but that’ll change by Friday. High temperatures by Friday afternoon should be in the 60s, 70s, and even 80s across Texas. We’ll also see moisture values increasing as surface dewpoints rise from the 10s-20s this evening up into the 50s and 60s by Saturday. Above-average temperatures with increasing moisture along with a potent upper-level storm system with combine to make for a potentially stormy Saturday across parts of Texas.
We’re still several days away and for that reason alone won’t try and get too specific on timing or threats. At this time it looks like a Saturday morning through Saturday evening event. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a broad level 2 risk for eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and far Southeast Texas for Saturday. This large risk zone also includes eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, western Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee. Arkansas, Lousiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
I do anticipate portions of this level 2 risk will be upgraded in later outlooks once confidence in a particular forecast solution increases. That being said, that higher risk will likely be east of Texas. Large hail certainly looks to be a threat with stronger storms on Saturday, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Each specific threat level can be more accurately determined once we get to Thursday and Friday. Consider this an early heads up that severe weather may occur on Saturday across eastern portions of Texas.
Another risk of strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall looks likely next Tuesday and Wednesday. That risk has shown up in long-range weather model data for a while now and is what we call ‘synoptically-evident’ – as in that kind of pattern showing up early next week has produced hazardous weather in the past. So at the least active weather looks to continue after Saturday with another potent storm system around Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week.
This uptick in active weather is no surprise considering we’re now entering our spring tornado season. Sunday in the Southeast United States proved that the spring season really has already arrived. Take the time now while the weather is nice to practice and review your severe weather safety plan with your family. Know where you’re going to to go if severe weather threatens you, know what you want to have in your safe place, and know what to do after severe weather strikes.
Have a plan! We’ve got a full page of safety information along with ways on how to receive severe weather warnings here.