A short line of thunderstorms extends from Bonham and Honey Grove southwest to Leonard to Wylie to D/FW International Airport. The second line of thunderstorms is starting to take shape from Mineral Wells southwest of Cross Plains to Coleman. We’ve seen a decline in thunderstorm intensity over the last 30 minutes, although the strongest storms continue to produce hail from the size of dimes to quarters. The highest wind gust we’ve seen is around 50 MPH, under severe limits.
While we have seen a temporary reduction in overall thunderstorm intensity, we do anticipate additional thunderstorms to develop over the next one to two hours across Northeast Texas southwest to North Texas. The new storm development back toward Rising Star to Coleman indicates another wave of upper-level lift approaching from the west.
The 10Z HRRR model actually is handling the ongoing thunderstorm placement quite well. That leads me to believe it at least has a decent grasp on what will be coming up over the next several hours. Using the simulated weather radar we see that an uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected by 8 AM as the upper-level lift increases. Conditions across Northeast Texas are favorable for organized thunderstorms with very strong kinematics (wind shear) and decent thermodynamics (instability).
Large hail will remain possible with the strongest storms. Localized damaging wind gusts may become more of an issue in the coming hours as we start to see some heating occur after sunrise. An isolated tornado threat is possible, but the overall tornado risk is low. We’ll keep an eye on it though. Thunderstorms will continue moving east quickly at 50 to 65 MPH through the late morning. That means we expect most storms to be east of Texas by lunch-time. Residual thunderstorms may continue along a frontal boundary in far East Texas into Southeast Texas this afternoon, but the risk of severe weather will be decreasing as the upper-level dynamics depart the region.