Storms in western North Texas have shown an increase in an organization over the last hour. We’ve seen a few signatures on the radar that would suggest brief tornadoes may have occurred in Eastland County. We’re also seeing signs of more widespread damaging winds of 60 to 70 MPH moving into Jack and Palo Pinto counties. These storms will move into western portions of the D/FW metroplex around 4 to 4:30 AM with the possibility of producing damaging winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, but it won’t matter too much if the winds are ‘rotating’ or if they come in the form of straight-line winds. This portion of the squall line is now moving east at 55 MPH.
Mesoscale Discussion 0189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Areas affected...Western North-Central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21... Valid 130803Z - 130900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Corridor of greater wind damage and QLCS tornado potential exists across western north-central TX. DISCUSSION...Recent KDYX imagery has shown a sharpening of the convective line moving into western north-central TX. This sharpening is coincident with the lines interaction with slightly better low-level moisture and moderate southerly/southeasterly surface winds. Additionally, VAD wind profiles from KDYX show a well-defined rear-inflow jet. Interaction between this well-organized part of the convective line, southeasterly surface winds, slightly better low-level moisture, and favorable orientation of the storm motion to the vertical shear suggests a higher wind damage and QLCS tornado threat within this corridor for the next hour or so.
The northern section of the squall line doesn’t look as impressive on radar, but don’t let appearances fool you this morning. Wind gusts of 50 to 65 MPh are possible in Wichita Falls southeast ot Jacksboro over the next 30 minutes as that moves northeast at 50 MPH.
A line of showers and storms extends from Brownwood to Brady to Junction to Brackettville. Movement is to the east at 40 to 45 MPH. Generally speaking, this section of the line has been less intense. Still, wind gusts of 40 to 60 MPH will be possible.