A level 2 risk of severe weather is in place across much of Texoma this evening. A level 1 risk includes the eastern Big Country, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. The primary difference between level 1 and level 2 risks are the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given point. Those in the level 1 risk have a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles while those in the level 2 risk have a 15% chance within 25 miles of a given point. Large hail is the primary threat in both risk zones this evening and overnight. There is a small window of opportunity for a brief tornado and localized damaging wind gusts. However, storms should become ‘elevated’ above a capping inversion fairly quickly. That will greatly limit the threat of tornadoes and damaging winds. Hail would remain quite possible given cold temperatures aloft along with elevated instability values.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this evening as upper-level ascent arrives. Some of these storms may be strong and capable of producing hail. The highest potential for hailers will be across Oklahoma south into Texoma. Storms farther south may produce hail, but the threat of hail being larger than the size of quarters isn’t as high. Given the very fast (strong) jetstream overhead, it is entirely possible that storm coverage may be higher than this model shows. Small ripples of energy in the jetstream aloft may not be depicted as efficiently, thus we’ll have to keep an eye out in case the storms end up being a bit more widespread south of the Red River.
Overall this evening’s setup does not favor a widespread severe weather threat in Texas. What is favored is the possibility of hail, although most should remain on the small side. An isolated tornado or damaging wind gust can’t be ruled out.