We have a few changes this evening regarding overnight thunderstorm chances. Short-range weather models along with observational data have become a bit more ambitious with thunderstorm coverage overnight. As such the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 risk of severe weather to include all of the D/FW Metroplex, south to Hillsboro, and northeast to near Canton to Texarkana. This level 2 risk means the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location is 15%. I still believe the highest chance of seeing severe weather will be in Oklahoma and Texoma (Red River counties) overnight with lower chances the farther south you go.
Severe weather is defined as quarter size hail, wind gusts of 58 MPH or higher, and tornadoes. The threat of tornadoes overnight is very low, but not totally zero. Hail and localized damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazards. Most activity is expected to be after midnight west of Interstate 35 in North Texas.
A line of thunderstorms should be near Interstate 35 from the Red River to the D/FW Metroplex around 3-5 AM. Not all thunderstorms will be strong to severe, although I wouldn’t be surprised if many produced small hail. The highest threat of severe weather will be in Southern Oklahoma, Southeastern Oklahoma, into Texoma.
Storms will continue moving east Thursday morning into Northeast Texas and East Texas. Some storms may remain strong with hail and localized damaging wind gusts. There is a very low chance of a brief tornado overnight, but that would be a case of ‘everything coming together’ to support that possibility versus a more widespread threat.
Tonight’s event is not expected to be a severe weather outbreak. We may not see more than a few hail reports, but meteorologist Al Moller had an excellent statement “When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.” That’s why we’ll keep an eye on things and hope all we deal with overnight are sub-severe storms with some small hail. Regardless, they’ll be loud and probably wake some folks up early in the morning.