A dreary winter’s night is upon much of Texas as precipitation increases across western regions this evening. Temperatures are too warm to support winter weather and too cool to support severe weather. Tonight through Saturday morning will be your typical chilly, wet winter rain event.

Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated clap of thunder will roll east on Friday and Friday Night across the entire state. We’re not expecting severe thunderstorms or even much in the way of lightning. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s – with a cool front dropping temperatures after the rains have ended. We note that most rain should be ending by lunchtime on Saturday as our upper-level storm system exits the region.

Potential rain accumulation from tonight through Saturday morning. NOAA/WPC

Overall rain accumulations will not be significant compared to events back in 2018. The Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and South Texas will be lucky to receive over a tenth of an inch of rainfall. Comparatively higher rainfall amounts of one-half inch to one and a quarter inches is expected across Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. These rainfall amounts are not expected to be high enough to produce flash flooding.

However, with saturated soils and dormant vegetation most (if not all) rain that falls will run-off into streams, tributaries, rivers, and local watersheds. That means another round of rises on rivers and lakes will probably occur this weekend into early next week. Low-lying road crossings and areas that typically collect water may experience flooding on Friday and Friday Night.

A cool front will usher in northwest winds and cooler temperatures for the weekend. Saturday will be fairly dreary with continued overcast skies after rains come to an end. Those northwest winds will keep cold air advection in place resulting in a brisk and chilly Saturday. Temperatures will start to moderate on Sunday, but it’ll still be rather cool with high temperatures ranging from around 60 degrees in Brownsville down to the middle 40s across West Texas east along the Red River through Texoma. At least much of Saturday and all of Sunday should be dry.