El Nino technically hasn’t even arrived yet and we’re already making up for a relatively quiet spring and summer. For the fifth weekend in a row, we’re going to have a multi-facet hazardous weather threat. Unlike our last event that featured a severe storm and heavy rain threat, this one is going for both of those plus the added threat of accumulating snow/ice. Yeah, I can’t believe its only mid-October either. Let this upcoming weather be another reminder that it doesn’t matter what the calendar says – hazardous weather can happen year-round. Let’s dive into it. Hopefully my ‘headline tags’ make this a bit easier to get through. Don’t forget to bookmark our free HD interactive weather radar. It’ a great tool and works well on mobile devices. Click here to check it out.
Increasing severe weather potential tonight into Saturday morning
The risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight and early Saturday across the Permian Basin and the Concho Valley is increasing. Earlier today the Storm Prediction Center upgraded those aforementioned regions to a level 2 risk of severe weather – the standard risk level. This upgrade is due to an increasing signal that severe storms will develop late tonight as the remnants of Sergio quickly move east/northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the Borderland and Trans-Pecos shortly. This activity may produce some small hail and gusty winds, but the more intense storms should hold off until later this evening. As lift and thunderstorms make their way into the Permian Basin tonight they’ll enter an area of more favorable thermodynamics and kinematics. Another way of saying it is the atmosphere will be more unstable and have more low-level wind shear in the Permian Basin tonight. While somewhat unusual due to the time of night, this system has a lot of energy and will offset the loss of daytime heating.
A line of thunderstorms could organize and quickly move eastward across the Permian Basin and Concho Valley late tonight, probably not getting going until 10-11 PM CT tonight. This line may contain thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to the size of golf balls and isolated tornadoes. Damaging straight-line winds and localized flooding are also a concern. This will be a night-time event which itself adds an extra layer of concern since most folks will be asleep. I encourage those in the Permian Basin and Concho Valley to sleep with an eye open tonight and have a way to receive weather warnings. The end of the HRRR simulated radar run above shows the line of storms making it into North Texas and Central Texas by 8 AM Saturday. Some storms may be strong at this point, and we’ll have to keep an eye out for any storms that fire ahead of the line.
Severe weather threat spreads east Saturday morning
Getting into Saturday morning and afternoon we see the Storm Prediction Center has also upgraded to a level 2 risk across the eastern Big Country into southwestern sections of North Texas. This zone will have a stationary front bisecting it from west to east as the line of storms from the Concho Valley moves east. That stationary front will have an unstable surface airmass along and south of it. We’ll have to watch for any storms that show signs of low-level rotation in the proximity of this front as low-level wind shear will be enhanced. Isolated tornadoes, large hail, and localized damaging winds are all threats. It is unclear if there will be another round of stronger storms Saturday afternoon/evening in North or Northeast Texas due to the morning round of storms.
Winter is coming…
The remnants of Sergio will quickly move east/northeast on Saturday and should exit Texas by Saturday Night. That’ll give us a short break, but our next weather maker will arrive on Sunday. A very strong cold front is going to push south into Texas beginning with the Panhandle on Sunday. That front will continue pushing south with strong north winds through Sunday into Sunday Night. By Monday morning the front should be through all of Texas with much colder conditions arriving behind it.
Winter Weather Potential
Winter precipitation will be possible in the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas on Sunday and Sunday Night. Some travel impacts and accumulations are possible. Please see our separate blog post here for specifics on the winter weather threat.
Rain Total Forecast & Potential for (more) Flooding
While the cold front may make it feel like November across Texas by Monday, plenty of moisture will remain in place in the atmosphere. An upper-level low is expected to develop in the southwestern United States. This low will be nearly stationary on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The position of that low will place parts of Texas in a favorable area for widespread rain and storms. With abundant moisture in place, we’re looking at a multi-day heavy rain event.
Flash Flood Outlooks
River Flood Outlook
The current forecast indicates the probability of localized flash flooding where heavier storms set up and another round of moderate to major flooding on some rivers and tributaries. Rains may continue into Wednesday and Thursday but may be comparatively lighter than the first half of the week.
Finally… we approach next weekend
Weather models are giving us some hope that we’ll have a drying trend and a return of ‘not winter’ temperatures toward Friday. Anyway, y’all can stop washing your vehicles now… please.
For specific weather forecast information for your location, please visit the National Weather Service here.