We’ll have to deal with the possibility of a stronger storm or two across the Brazos Valley into East Texas for a few more hours, but the majority of the severe weather threat has come to an end for the day. Tomorrow will begin our second weather maker and its associated hazards. Some severe storms may occur, but we’ll talk about that in a different blog. Tornadoes don’t look like a big threat tomorrow, so hail/wind will be the primary modes.
For the next five days, the primary corridor of heaviest rainfall looks to be from the Concho Valley northeast through North Texas and Northeast Texas. This corridor is expected to see two to four inches of additional rainfall. Localized rain totals within this corridor may exceed 6 inches. Lighter rain totals are expected to the north and to the south of this heaviest band. A secondary maximum of heavier totals is also anticipated in the Edwards Plateau, Southwest Texas, into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Keep in mind this is all for additional rain after today’s event.
The Weather Prediction Center has a slight/standard risk of flash flooding in place for Sunday/Sunday Night from the Edwards Plateau northeast through the Hill Country, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. The threat of flooding doesn’t look to become widespread at this point, but we could always see a localized upgrade if future data warrants it.
Monday already has a moderate risk of flash flooding issued from the eastern Concho Valley northeast through the D/FW Metroplex into Southeast Oklahoma. Soils simply cannot absorb any more water. We’ve seen plenty of low-water crossings and streams flooded today with rainfall amounts that usually wouldn’t cause that much of an issue. Flooding will definitely become a more persistent threat as heavier rains continue on Monday. Expect flood watches to be hoisted for Monday and Tuesday in future forecasts. In addition to flash flooding potential, we also are anticipating rises on rivers across the eastern half of Texas. Some rivers will likely enter moderate to major flood stage (again).
Not to be totally outdone, the Texas Panhandle will have to deal with winter weather tomorrow as a strong cold front blast south. Light freezing drizzle is expected to cause a glazing of ice, especially on elevated surfaces. Travel issues tomorrow into Monday morning are possible. Snow accumulations of one to two inches may occur in the northwestern Texas Panhandle and in the western Oklahoma Panhandle. See our Panhandle-specific blog post for details.
A very strong cold front will blast south on Sunday into Monday across Texas. Temperatures behind the front will be 30 to 40 degrees colder than what we’ve experienced over the last several days. High temperatures on Monday behind the front will range from the 30s to 40s with wind chills in the 20s and 30s. This will also occur as that heavy rain threat continues, so a very cold rain indeed. Lows by Tuesday morning will fall into the 20s across the Texas Panhandle – resulting in a killing freeze. The freeze line may make it south into West Texas.