Hurricane Florence, Helene, and Isaac will not impact our weather in Texas. Unfourtinietly we have a little tropical mischief of our own to deal with. Let me start off by saying that there is no reason to get hyped up, worried, or in a panic state. This potential system’s highest impact will likely be rainfall – regardless if it is named ‘Joyce’ or not.
Invest 95L is located in the northwestern Caribbean. There is no indication of a surface low developing. Showers and thunderstorms are disorganized. Strong wind shear in the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico should prevent any organization in the short-term. This system will continue to slowly move northwest for the next several days.
The forecast becomes a bit more interesting when this system makes it into the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Wind shear will remain strong across the southern Gulf of Mexico, so any development would not occur until the system made it closer to the Texas coast. That doesn’t give the system much time to organize. However, sea surface temperatures are warm and that alone means we’ll need to keep a close eye on trends in the coming days.
A majority of weather models keep Invest 95L as a weak system. That could mean a ‘tropical wave’, a tropical depression, or perhaps a tropical storm. The point is even if this system became a tropical cyclone the primary impacts would still be rainfall. There is no indication that this system will become a hurricane. There is no guarantee this system will even organize enough to be considered a ‘tropical depression’.
We’ll have a new blog post late this evening with more specifics on this system – including potential tracks and intensity guidance.