Another round of heavy rain is expected to cause new flooding issues tonight. The National Weather Service has flood watches in place for the Edwards Plateau, South-Central Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Not everyone will experience heavy rain tonight, but there is concern about those who have already seen flooding this week. Widespread rain totals of one to three inches are expected. Localized rain totals may approach six to seven inches, and that’s where the threat of flooding would be the highest tonight.
A diffuse cool front interacting with tropical moisture are two key factors in setting up more rain tonight. Using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) for our simulated radar one can see that a fairly widespread bout of rain is probable tonight from Laredo north/northeast toward San Antonio and Austin. We’re especially concerned about heavy rain falling over areas that have already seen big rains this week. That’s because with saturated soils any new rain will simply run-off. That’ll cause flooding with lower rain amounts, and make it easier to get renewed flooding concerns.
The HRRR is fairly keen on having localized rain totals of 5 to 7 inches by morning in portions of the Edwards Plateau and South-Central Texas. Those amounts would certainly be high enough to cause flooding, although the severity of any flooding would depend on where the rains fell (due to heavy rains earlier this week and if its rural versus urban). Either way please ensure you drive carefully tonight. Remember, turn around – don’t drown!