Several records have been reached or exceeded across Texas this afternoon. Generally speaking – today was the warmest day since 2011 and 2012 across the hottest regions. Tomorrow and Saturday will be worse. In fact, the National Weather Service in Fort Worth noted that all-time record high temperatures may be in jepordy in the D/FW Metroplex and Waco.
NWS Fort Worth Area Forecast Discussion: The Weekend---Very hot conditions are expected this weekend. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning has been posted for the entire area. A diffuse frontal boundary (and by diffuse, I mean very diffuse), will slide southwards through portions of Central and possibly southern Oklahoma. This will result in a large area of southwesterly flow. With the weak downsloping, I`ve hedged towards some of the warmer guidance with temperatures nearing 110 in some spots. In fact, even some of the blended short-range guidance advertises widespread 110-112 degree heat! I`m not ready to go all out on the these extremely hot conditions, but if the southwesterly flow is a bit stronger than forecast, it may be possible and all-time record high temperatures at D/FW and Waco will be within striking distance.
Likewise the all-time high temperature on record for the West Texas Mesonet is 116 from 2011. Based off several sites reaching 113 degrees today it is possible we see a few sites get close to that 116 record tomorrow or on Saturday. We’ve gone beyond ‘typical Texas heat’ and entered the ‘this doesn’t happen more than one or two times a decade (or longer)’ stage. The desert southwest can get this extreme heat, but their dewpoints are usually very dry.
The extreme heat will continue through the weekend. We note that while temperatures closer to the coast and in East Texas are lower, the humidity values will be higher. That higher humidity will result in heat index values comparable to the ‘actual air temperature’ farther north and west. No matter where you are in Texas the next several days are going to be extremely hot.
A sign of change is on the horizon, though. The ‘heat dome of doom’ should begin shifting back west toward Monday and Tuesday of next week. That will allow temperatures to drop from record/extremely hot territory down toward more typical summer weather. We may even see a chance for some popup showers/storms, but I don’t want anyone to get too hopeful on that chance.