Diurnal thunderstorms have been plentiful when you look at a rainfall graphic taken over a three-day span. From Tuesday through Thursday we’ve seen a good coating of rain coverage from the Texas Panhandle east through North Texas and into East Texas. It looks like most everyone east of Interstate 45 from Dallas to Conroe has had rain closeby. The rains across the Borderland, West Texas, and the Panhandle are more from the typical monsoon pattern. Hopefully some of the folks that needed rain the most got some and I’m glad that there was not any widespread or significant flooding reported.

Today will begin a downward trend in rain chances as the upper-level ridge (affectionately nicknamed the heat dome of doom by yours truly) edges closer to the southern United States. It’s centered over the four-corners region of the Southwest United States. It’ll drift a bit farther east this weekend and help reduce rain chances while turning up the heat. The heat dome of doom won’t actually make it here, so no record-heat is forecast this weekend.

Rain Chances

Today

The best chance for scattered late morning and afternoon thunderstorms today will be across Southeast Texas and East Texas. Coverage should be lower than yesterday. Isolated popup storms will be possible farther west into North Texas, the Big Country, Texoma, and Northwest Texas. Only isolated coverage is expected. If a good outflow boundary can get going that may help to locally enhance storm coverage this afternoon over a small region. Hopefully, we can keep the storms off the major airports. Aviation interests have not had a pleasant week with plenty of weather-induced headaches. As usual, we should see dwindling coverage by dinner-time with not much left after 9 PM.

Farther west we’ll have another day of monsoonal moisture in place. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening across the Borderland, West Texas, and across the Texas Panhandle. Anyone of the storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. Blowing dust may occur as outflow winds push out from any given thunderstorm. Sorry to those whose outdoor plans might be impacted, but storms shouldn’t sit over one given spot for long.

Saturday

Rain chances on Saturday will again be divided between the monsoon out west and typical diurnal popups in the east. Tomorrow’s chances out east will be confined mainly to East Texas, Southeast Texas, and coastal regions down to the Rio Grande Valley. Any storm could produce lots of lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. If thunder roars go indoors! Monsoonal rains are a better bet on Saturday across the Borderland and across the northwestern half of the Texas Panhandle. Hazards are similar to those expected today.

Sunday

Sunday looks to be the driest day out of the next three. Isolated popup storms will be possible across far Southeast Texas, but the ‘heat dome of doom’ will have shut off rain chances elsewhere. Even in the Borderland and in the Panhandle rain chances will be lower, but isolated activity will still probably materialize.

Temperature Forecast

Today

If hot weather isn’t forecast in July it’s because we have widespread rain in the forecast or you’ve relocated to the Northwest Territories. Seeing as neither is expected it’s going to be hot. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s in far Southeast Texas and in the Borderland to right around 100 degrees across the Edwards Plateau, Southwest Texas, north into Northwest Texas. Heat index values will run 3 to 8 degrees above the actual air temperature.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday’s high-temperature forecast features a similar outlook except temperatures should be about 2 to 3 degrees warmer than today. That means we’ll see the middle 90s to around 102 degrees across the state. Heat index values will range from 95-96 up to near 105 degrees. While not shown, Sunday will be near or a degree warmer than Saturday. We’ll likely see several sites approach or get into the triple digits. Laredo may make a run at 105 degrees on Sunday.

A personal note and an apology

I’m sorry I haven’t been posting the usual morning weather roundups for the last several months. Life got in the way and didn’t leave time for much else. I’m hoping we’re able to make these a regular feature again on the site. Jenny will have your Saturday weather roundup tomorrow. Have a great Friday! 🙂