The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st. With that in mind, one must always remain vigilant of mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. Vigilance and outright anxiety are two different things. One is healthy and one is not. Posting ‘doomsday’ scary looking weather model graphics (that are unlikely to verify) for views is something we’re not going to do. You may have seen an example of a scary long-range weather model graphic last week. That model was showing a hurricane impacting the Texas coastline this upcoming weekend. That solution never was viable and that model – which has a history of showing those ‘doomsday’ hurricanes in its extended range – no longer shows that.
However, we are monitoring the potential for increased rain chances beginning this weekend and continuing next week. Part of that will be thanks in part to Hurricane Bud in the eastern Pacific. Bud is moving toward Baja California. The hurricane itself won’t make it to Texas, but lots of moisture could. A second contributor could be a tropical low that moves into Texas in the Sunday timeframe.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. That activity is located over the western Caribbean Sea. No development is expected in the next couple of days. However, there is a chance it could develop into a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Either way, the primary weather hazard looks to be rain at this point.
The upcoming weather pattern is still uncertain but is trending toward one that would favor a good soaking. With moisture from Bud in western parts of Texas and lots of moisture across the eastern half of Texas, we may see beneficial rains.
Already the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting above-average chances for rain next week. We note those higher chances include the entire state. It is far too soon to talk about specific regions of higher-end rain totals. That’ll get nailed down as we get closer to the weekend and a better handle on all the weather players. Heavy rainfall may cause the threat of flooding to develop in some locations should a multi-day rainfall event unfold. That’s all for the weekend and into next week. The next several days will feature typical summer-time weather.